将瑞典银行（SEB）和丹麦银行（Danske）评级从减持上调至增持，将挪威银行（DNB）和北欧联合银行（NDA）评级从增持下调至中性

Double U/G SEB & Danske to OW,D/G DNB & NDA to EW We remain selective on Nordic banks. However, we now turnmore constructive on Danish Banks (OW on both Danske andJyske) and believe there are select opportunities withinSwedish banks (OW on SEBA). European BanksPOSITIVEUnchanged European BanksNamita Samtani, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 2583namita.samtani@barclays.comBarclays, UK We turn more constructive on Danish Banks and we believe there are select opportunitieswithin Swedish banks:We double upgrade SEB and Danske from Underweight to Overweightand downgrade DNB and NDA from Overweight to Equal Weight. We retain our Overweightrating on Jyske, Equal Weight on SHBA, and Underweight on SWEDA. Our preference for SEB andDanske shares some common themes including: 1. We expect both banks' NII to trough in 2Q25and are consequently above consensus NII expectations across FY25e-27e by 1-4%; 2. Bothbanks have an above-average percentage of non-NII revenues amongst Nordic banks at 36-47%vs the average of 35%, which we believe is helpful in a falling rate environment; and 3. ForDanske, in particular, we believe the termination of the probation period related to the Estoniacase at the end of this year could be a positive catalyst for capital return. We downgrade DNBand NDA from OW to EW as we see limited upside potential from current levels. Whilst we retainour Underweight on SWEDA, we believe that, should the group address its cost base at itsinvestor day on 4 June, this could be seen as a positive catalyst. Ameya Rajesh Khandekar+91 (0)22 6175 1145ameyarajesh.khandekar@barclays.comBarclays, UK Company Section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 SEB (OW, PT SEK185). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Danske (OW, PT DKK289). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4SWEDA (UW, PT SEK228). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4DNB (EW, PT NOK296). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5NDA (EW, PT EUR13.4). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5SHBA (EW, PT SEK136). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Jyske (OW, PT DKK705). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 SEB: Double upgrade to Overweight (PT SEK185). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Six key charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9A 15% RoE ambition...?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12We are 2-3% above consensus NII expectations for SEB across FY25e-27e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14SEB's NII has been sensitive to rate cuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14We believe SEB's loan book is better positioned with less exposure to Swedish mortgages vsSWEDA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15We believe funding issuance may be lower in 2H25 vs 1H25 and we believe SEB has a liabilitystructure advantage vs peers in a falling rate environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Large corporate loan growth may pick up but there is uncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18However, as long as rates fall we believe the Baltics will be a headwind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19We forecast 2Y fee CAGR of 8% FY26 vs FY24 vs cons of 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Danske: Double upgrade to Overweight (PT DKK289). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Six key charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22We are 1-4% above consensus NII over FY25e-27e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24We forecast fee growth 4-5% above consensus FY25e-27e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29We estimate Danske has the largest amount of excess capital out of the Nordic banks. . . . . . . . 32 Company Section SEB (OW, PT SEK185) SEB has been the third worst performer in the SX7P YTD. The reasons for our do