中国股票策略：仓位较轻，关注催化剂——新加坡投资者反馈

Light positioning inChina, but watching for a turn During ourSingapore marketing last week, investors we spoke with are no longercomplaining/debating about China’s underperformance, suggesting that positioning isalready quite light. Focus remains on AI, and even more narrowly on AIhardware/infrastructure as a“model agnostic”play. The view is that MSCI China/H-sharemay continue to lag unless the AI hardware rally fades. As such, discussions have shiftedto potential catalysts for a“trend reversal”, including: 1) higher cost of capital from Equity StrategyChina Winnie Wu>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3058 Patrick Pan, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4601 Focussectors: metals, non-bank financials, consumers Gina Wu>>StrategistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8008 Investors are frustrated by the underperformance of metals and non-bank financials. Wethink this is driven by: 1) relatively crowded positioning and foreign flow selling, asChina’s weighting in MSCI EM fell from 31% to 21% over the past 8mths; 2) earnings:fears that“the best is behind”and limited visibility ahead; and 3) concerns on policytightening or“national team”selling (for non-banks). Investors are encouraged by“greenshoots”in property markets and hope it could boost consumption. We are constructive Related report China Conference feedback: bubble,rotation, and the A-share style, May Memory: positioning not stretched? Missing is career risk As discussed in ourChina Conference feedback (link), market concerns about an AI Why has China underperformed –earnings and beyond, Apr 28th bubble have declined. HFs adopting AI tools are seeing real productivity gains, with AUMrising much more than headcount. Tech specialists are more confident than generalistson memory supply shortage and pricing power. Has positioning become too crowded? SKHynix, nearly USD1tn in market cap, still has risen 5-10% a day–suggesting continuedsizeable inflow. Some LOs admit that they remain underweight, either reluctant to chaseor sold too early–seasoned investors tend to be more cautious about the“cyclical/commodity”nature of the space. Therefore, positioning may not be as stretched asfeared. Anecdotally, some EM funds have shut down recently for underperformance– Stay bullish on AI hardware & exportgrowth: onshore investors’ feedback, 2Q26: play defensive, awaiting forpositive catalysts, Apr 2nd R.E.A.L. moats amid AI shockwaves,Mar 16thGlossary:EM: Emerging MarketOTA: Online Travel AgentAUM: assets under managementHF: hedge fundLO: long-only fund Policyrisk: less geopolitical, more domesticWith low expectations going into the Xi-Trump summit, investors were not disappointed either.“Strategic stability”in US-China relations should help contain tail risks for themarket in the next 4-5mths. That said, China’s crackdown on unlicensed cross-borderbrokerage has raised concerns. Investors are debating whether this signals anotherround of tightening on internet sectors (following FinTech, eCommerce, OTA), or is more Trading ideas andinvestment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. Light positioning, watching catalysts Source:Bloomberg, MSCI Source:Bloomberg, MSCI, FactSet Disclosures Important Disclosures Due to the nature of strategic analysis, the issuers or securities recommended or discussed in this report are not continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report asproviding stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers and/or securities.BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of AmericaCorporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overallprofitability of the Bank’s sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible. Other Important Disclosures Prices are indicative and for information purposes only. Except as otherwise stated in the report, for any recommendation in relation to an equity security, the price referenced is the publiclytraded price of the security as of close of business on the day prior to the date of the report or, if the report is published during intraday trading, the price ref