凯伦生物：sac-TMT的首个全球III期试验成功；美国商业化在即

Biotechnology Buy: sac-TMT's first global phase Ill trial success;Uscommercialisationlies ahead endometrial cancer (EMC)... 549.00549.00 SHARE PRICE (HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE424.20+29.4%(as of 18 May 2026) ...which could support its Us launch in2027 +Maintain Buy rating and target price of HKD549.00 partner MSD announced sac-TMT (TROP2 ADC)'s success in a global phase Il trial fortreating pre-treated EMC. In this registrational trial, sac-TMT monotherapy comparedimprovement in dual primary endpoint: overall survival (Os) and progression-freesurvival(PFS),amongEMCpatientsprogressedafterplatinum-basedchemotherapyand PD(L)1 immunotherapy. This marks sac-TMT's first positive global phase IlI results,and also TROP2 ADC's first positive result in 2L+ EMC. We therefore turn moreoptimistic on sac-TMT's anti-tumor efficacy and label expansion potential, and think suchsuccess also reflects that China'spromising clinical results could be replicated overseas.Sac-TMT is seen as a cornerstone by MSD, with 17 global phase Ill trials ongoing,including 13 in first movers (source: Company data, Pharmcube). With national priorityvouchers,weestimate sac-TMT's overseas launch willtakeplace in2027.KelunBiotech's share price is up c8% y-t-d (vs HSHCI -6% y-t-d) driven by smooth overseasprogress. We think the valuation is attractive and think sac-TMT's solid phase Ill data in1Llungcancer(2026ASCO)andoverseaslaunchcouldresultinpotentialupside Sac-TMT showed promising China data in broad tumors.Sac-TMT reportedpromising China phase Il data in advanced EMC in year-end 2025. Sac-TMTreported a high overall response rate (ORR, 30.7% and 34.1% in 4/5mg cohort), andprolonged median progression free survival (PFS, 6.0m and 7.3m in 4/5mg), whilechemotherapy'sPFSusually ranges from3-5.5m(source:Company data,Pharmcube). sac-TMT will also update China phase Ill (OptiTROP-Lung05) data in1L PDL1 positive non-small cells lung cancer (NSCLC, sac-TMT+Keyturda vsKeytruda)in2026ASCOoralabstractsession.WeexpectsuchdatatoprovidehintsforMSD's overseaphaseIIltrialsfortreating1LPDL1highNSCLC(TroFuse-007) Cindy Chai* (Reg. No. S1700523040001)Analyst,ChinaHealthcareResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcindy.x.r.chai@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662005 Linda Shu*, PhD (Reg. No. S1700522120001)HeadofChinaHealthcareResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlinda.y.l.shu@hsbcqh.com.cn+8675588983246 Future milestone towatch.For sac-TMT, we expect2026ASCOreadout in 1LPDL1+NSCLC, followed by China approval in 2H26eand 1L PDL1-NSCLC and 1LTNBC China data in 2H26. We expect sac-TMT's US launch in 2027 with 2L+ EMCasthefirstindication.WeexpectbothMSDandKelunBiotechtoinitiatesac-TMTcombos withPD1/VEGFexploration to improveanti-tumor efficacyandexpand label.We also see smooth progress for Kelun's early-stage assets, such as SKB500 (B7H3ph II), SKB410 (Nectin-4, ph I/I), SKB103 (TAA/PDL1, ph I/II), SKB571 (c-MET/EGFR, ph I) and SKB118 (PD1NVEGF, ph I). *Employedbyanon-USaffliateofHSBCSecurities (USA) Incandisnot registered/qualifed pursuant toFINRAregulations HSBCFundingtheFutureSurvey HKD549.00 (unchanged), which implies c29% upside from current levels; accordingly, wemaintainourBuyratingonthestock.Seepage6forvaluationandkeydownsiderisks Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Disclosures&Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Key downside risks We continue to use DCF-based method to value the stock. Our target Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s)as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s)orviews contained in this researchreport:Cindy Chai and Linda Shu, PhD Equities:Stockratings and basis for financialanalysis HSBC and its affliates, including the issuer of this report (HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingbecause rese