全球投资组合经理摘要：原油觉醒

Crude Awakening regions and asset classes. This week, we assess the variouspotential implications of higher gas prices; examine therecentrallyinsemisstocksandthecompsto2ooo;anddiveinto data center cooling, a critical component of operations Terence Malone +12125267578terence.malone@barclays.comBCI, US +44 (0)20 7773 3576rob.bate@barclays.comBarclays, UK more since the start of the Iran war than in 2022. That said, inflation expectations have notrisen as much as in 2022, and neither have toll road and airport credit spreads. Were the 2022analogy to unfold, inflation from one to twoyearsoutwouldbewellover3%,whiletightspreads of lower-rated toll roads and small and medium-sized airports, especially in tourist-heavymarkets,mightbevulnerable.Pertainingtothepotentialpoliticalimplications,recentpolling indicates that perceptions of gas price changes track political views more closely thanactual movements in price. On that point, voters'perceptions ofgas price changes mayconverge to reflect actual price movements, ratherthan simply correlating with politicalviews. It is the duration of higher gas prices, not the spike, that matters most for the midtermelections and inflation,in our view. Looking ahead,various policy levers could help close the$1/gal spread between AAA retail gas and Rbob and help contain what we believe is a $5/galred line for the administration. However, time may have run out for an opening of the Strait ofHormuz toprevent2026from being worse than2022. FICC Product Management GroupJennifer Cardilli"+1212 526 8351jennifer.cardill@barclays.comBCI, US Jill Nentwig'+12125265129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US .The Sustainability of the Semis Rally: In our view, it is too early to fade the recent move insemiconductor stocks, and itis not a repeat of 2ooo, as we note that the earnings are real, thedemand is contractual, and the Al Infrastructure build-out has years to run. And yes, it is truethat the semiconductor sector has a long and colorful history of booms and busts. But over-building and excessive valuations have proved the Achilles heel each time. This time, wewould be especially focused on the memory cycle, which does have a shelf life. But theleading indicator for everything in this sector, we think, is hyperscaler capex commitments. This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S.FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 29.FORIMPORTANTEQUITYRESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASESEEPAGE29.FOR IMPORTANTFIXEDINCOME RESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASE SEEPAGE30.Completed: 16-May-26, 00:04 GMT Released: 17-May-26, 13:00 GMTRestricted -External Microsoft, and Meta are raising their capex guidance, the demand story shouldn't be faded. Ifthey start to blink-by cutting a capex forecast, signaling that Al monetization is falling shortof the spending -semis as a sector will reprice. That could well be the inflection point for riskassets overall, if history is any indicator. That is not to say that semis couldn't have a 10-15%pullback even without a lasting catalyst. However, that is a far cry from the collapses in 2000,or2008, or even 2022. as Al-driven workloads push server rack power densities higher and place new demands oncooling infrastructure and related water use. We note that while single-phase direct-to-chip(D2C) liquid cooling-where primary waterflows through cold plates attached directly tosilicon processors-is gaining adoption, the industry is already preparing for two-phase D2Csystems using refrigerants to address ever-increasing server power densities. Longer term,vendors are exploring microfluidic channels etched directly into the silicon, potentiallybypassing cold plates altogether. Meanwhile, as single-phase D2C scales, several systemcomponents could become increasingly commoditized,plus hyperscalers continue to pursuein-housecoolingR&D.Withthisinmind,weoutlinekeypublicandprivateparticipantsacrossthe cooling value c