哈萨克斯坦2026财年至2031财年国家伙伴关系框架

Document ofThe World Bank Group FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No.:CPF0000040 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN FOR THE PERIOD FY2026-FY2031 May 14, 2026 Central AsiaCountry Management UnitEurope and Central AsiaRegionPublic Disclosure Authorized The International Finance CorporationMiddle EastandCentral Asia Region The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Groupauthorization.Public Disclosure Authorized The date of the last Performance and Learning Review was July 29, 2023. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange RateEffective as ofApril 13, 2026 Currency Unit = Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT) US$1 = KZT473.13 FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADBAsian Development BankJERPJoint Economic ResearchProgramAIIBAsian Infrastructure InvestmentBankKZTKazakhstani TengeCPFCountry Partnership FrameworkMIGAMultilateral Investment GuaranteeAgencyDPODevelopment Policy OperationMSMEsMicro, Small, and MediumEnterprisesEBRDEuropean Bank forReconstruction and DevelopmentPPPsPublic-PrivatePartnershipsFDIForeign Direct InvestmentR&DResearch and DevelopmentFYFiscal YearSOEState-Owned EnterpriseIBRDInternational Bank forReconstruction and DevelopmentTCITRTrans-Caspian InternationalTransport RouteIFCInternational Finance CorporationUNUnited NationsIFIsInternational FinancialInstitutionsWBGWorld Bank GroupIsDBIslamic Development BankWBG-GPWBG Guarantee Platform COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR KAZAKSTAN(FY26-31)Leveragingknowledge,financeand guarantees to mobilize private capitalfor amore competitive economy 1.This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) sets out how the World Bank Group (WBG) will supportKazakhstan’sambitiousdevelopmentplans,byfocusing on policy and institutional reforms,and innovativeinvestmentsand guarantees,thatcatalyzeprivate capitaland contribute toregional and global public goods. 2.Kazakhstan, an upper-middle-income,landlocked,asset-richeconomy, faces the limits ofitsnatural-resource-dependentandstate-dominateddevelopmentmodel.Over the past two decades,thecountryhas made significant progress indeveloping its economy andreducing poverty. However,growthdividendshave recently beenunequally distributed aswealthinequality, including betweenlocations of thisimmense territory, is on the rise. Also, thereismounting pressure to createbetterquality jobsfora growingandincreasingly well-educatedyoungpopulation. These trendshave challenged the currentresource-dependentgrowth modeland call foran alternativedevelopment path that providessustainable and privatesector led growth withboth equity and jobs. 3.Gainsfrom first generation reformsaresubsidingas thetransitionto market has sloweddown.Productivityandinvestment efficiencyhave beentoo low toact assustainablegrowthengines.The countryhas the assets andcapabilities to shifttoward a more diversified, private-ledgrowth path. The Governmenthasrecognizedthe needforthis shiftasarticulated in its National Development Plan. Ithas engaged ina newcycle of reformsand investmentsto seize opportunities that current global and regional dynamics offer. 4.Thisnewphase of Kazakhstan’s developmentisstartingfrom a position of strength.The countryhasvastenergy and mineral resources, strong public financefoundations, asolidmacro-fiscal position withcredible policyimplementationcapacity, andthedemographic dividend of agrowingyoungpopulation. Itssizeand strategic location at the heart of Eurasia positionitas a pivotal transit hub along theTrans-CaspianInternational Transport Route (TCITRorMiddle Corridor)and a regional anchor for sharedtransport,water,energy, and environmental systems.Itisalsonaturallypositioned tocontribute to regional and global publicgoods,including knowledge,while pursuingitsowndevelopment goals. The CPFwillcontribute to both. 5.Yetstructural and institutional constraints continue to weigh onthe country’sgrowth potentialandenvironmental resilience.Kazakhstan’sgrowthmodel,driven by natural resources,can lead toa“middle-income country trap”as the availability of fiscal and foreign exchange resourcesgenerated bytheextractives,can delayneededstructural transformation and associatedreforms thatare needed tounlockproductivity gains and job creation in high value-added sectors—thepaths to reach ahigh-incomelevel. 6.Theheadwinds againstfasterstructuraleconomictransformation are strong. Thedominantrole ofthestatein the economylimitscompetition, market entryand firmproductivity. Italso displaces capitalawayfromhigher efficiency activities.The country’slandlocked geographyraises the cost of business,andlargeinfrastructure investments are needed to connect disparate urban centers and lagging regions.Theseinv