贸易去专业化：动力和决定因素（英）

Nicola D. Coniglio, Matteo Lanzafame, and Davide Vurchio Trade De-Specialization: Dynamics and Determinants No. 844 | May 2026 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2026 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 Some rights reserved. Published in 2026. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS260174-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS260174-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes:In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. ABSTRACT Export baskets reflect broader processes of structural change and economic development. Whilemost studies emphasize the emergence of new export specializations, this paper examines anequally important yet neglected pattern—trade exits, defined as sustained declines in revealedcomparative advantage. Using a large sample of economies from 2000 to 2019, we show thattrade exits are widespread, with more than one-third of trade specializations disappearing duringthis period. We document substantial heterogeneity across economies and sectors and identifyboth product- and economy-level drivers of exits. We pay particular attention to the role of product Keywords:trade exits, de-specialization, deindustrialization, the China shock, structuralchange, manufacturing, relatedness JEL codes:F1, O1, O3, O14, O25, L60 I.INTRODUCTION The composition of economies’ export baskets reflects the broader processes of structural changeand economic development. The evolution of export specializations constitutes a mirror image ofthe underlying productive capabilities that economies accumulate over time, serving as a powerfullensthrough which to observe patterns of industrialization,technological upgrading,andeconomic dynamism (Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik 2007; Hidalgo et al. 2007; Agosin, Alvarez,and Bravo-Ortega 2012; Coniglio et al. 2021; O’Clery, Yildirim, and Hausmann 2021). As Despite the importance of export basket evolution, the vast majority of existing studies focusalmost exclusively on new specializations or entries into export markets. A substantial literaturehas examined how economies diversify their export portfolios, exploring the determinants ofexport entry or export surges (Agosin, Alvarez, and Bravo-Ortega 2012; Freund and Pierola2012), the role of relatedness in shaping new specializations (Coniglio et al. 2021), and therelationship between diversification and economic development (O’Clery, Yildirim, and Hausmann2021;Pinheiro et al. 2022). While this research has significantly advanced our understanding of Our paper aims to contribute to the analysis of structural transformation by providing evidence onthe drivers of sudden erosion or loss of comparative advantages in export markets—what we term Understandingpatterns of export de-specialization is particularly relevant to the study ofdeindustrialization.The loss of comparative advantage in tradable goods—especiallymanufacturedproducts—represents a key mechanism through which deindustrializationmanifests in an open economy context (Rowthorn and Wells 1987, Wood 2023). When economieslose their ability to compete in international markets for specific industrial products, this typicallyprecedes or accompanies domestic employmentand output contractions in those sectors(Bernard, Jensen, andSchott2006; Hanson 2012). Thus, analyzing trade exits provides an early While most studies on deindustrialization focus on the