早期预警覆盖率、接收决定因素和益处：调查可以告诉我们什么（英）

Policy Research Working Paper Early Warnings Coverage, Determinantsof Reception, and Benefits Chloé BeaudetLouise BernardBramka Arga JafinoPaolo Avner Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global DepartmentSeptember 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11199 Abstract Early warning systems are a cornerstone of disaster riskreduction, enabling timely alerts and protective actionsthat save lives and reduce damages. Yet, despite their docu-mented cost-effectiveness and potential to bolster resilience,early warning system coverage remains uneven across coun-tries and within communities. Furthermore, there remainsa gap in the literature around people-centered approachesto understand what drives early warning system coverage, Risk Poll, the paper first examines the determinants of earlywarning system coverage at the national level, highlightingthe role of gross domestic product, disaster predictability,and the likelihood that a country is affected by a disaster.At the household level, the findings show that warningreception is influenced by socioeconomic status, dwellinglocation, and access to digital devices. Finally, the papershows that receiving an early warning is strongly associated The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Early Warnings Coverage, Determinants of Reception, and Benefits: Chloé Beaudet; Paris-Saclay University, AgroParisTech, INRAE & The World BankLouise Bernard; Centre for Net ZeroBramka Arga Jafino; The World BankPaolo Avner; The World Bank Keywords: early warning systems; early warning; disaster risk reduction; coverage; resilience. JEL: Q54, Q01, Q58 This study was supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) andthe Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance. The authors are grateful to Alvina Elisabeth Erman for her 1.Introduction Disasters pose a significant challenge to global socioeconomic development. Over the past decade,geophysical, climate, and weather-related disasters have collectively resulted in economic damagesaveraging approximately US$170 billion annually (UNDRR, 2022). Disaster impacts are unevenlydistributed, with developing countries and smaller economies experiencing more pronounced short-term macroeconomic declines after disasters of comparable relative magnitude with respect todeveloped nations or larger economies (Noy, 2009). Looking at specific hazards, 23% of the globalpopulation faces substantial risk from 1-in-100-year flood events, with 170 million of these individualsliving in extreme poverty (Rentschler et al., 2022). Floods have been the most frequent naturaldisasters causing up to 1,000 fatalities per event over the past 50 years, with flash floods accounting Early warning systems (EWS) are one critical non-structural measure for disaster risk reduction. A well-designed EWS integrates a series of interconnected systems that monitor, analyze, and disseminatedata on impending threats, facilitating timely alerts for at-risk populations. These systems rely on astrong technological foundation, including effective observation networks, advanced data processingand modeling techniques, and efficient communication and dissemination platforms. Additionally, the In the context of the traditional framework that expresses risk as the product of hazard, exposure, andvulnerability, EWS plays a key role in mitigating the exposure of vulnerable populations and their assetsto potential hazards. By providing early alerts, these systems help people move themselves and someof their belongings out of harm’s way. Additionally, EWS contribute to adaptive capacity by enablingtimely response actions that reduce vulnerability, reinforcing the resilience of communities in the face Investments in EWS deliver significant risk reduction benefits. In Europe alone, it is estimated that EWScan avoid between 460 million and 2.7 billion euros of disaster-induced asset damages per year, whilethe figures are between US$300 million to US$2 billion per year in all developing countries (Hallegatte,2012). A newer worldwide estimate suggests that potential avoided asset losses of US$13 billion peryear could be achieved through ensuring universal access to early warnings (EW) (Hallegatte et al.,2017). Avoided damage varies depending on the lead time of the warnings, as more actions can be Despite the promising advantages of EWS, their adoption remains limited, and their benefits are yetto be fully understood let alone realized. As of March 2024, only 108 countries (i.e., around 55% of allcountries in the world) had reported the presence of multi-hazard early w