贸易政策冲击与企业估值——解开贸易和不确定性的渠道（英）

Trade Policy Shocks andCorporate Valuations Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty Channels Robert Beyer, Hui Tong, and Xinbei Zhou WP/26/70 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026APR IMF Working PaperEuropean Department Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations—Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty ChannelsPrepared byRobert Beyer, Hui Tong, and Xinbei Zhou Authorized for distribution byMalhar NabarApril2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper investigates how the 2025 U.S. trade-policy shocks propagated to global equityvaluations. Country-level studies have documented the aggregate costs of tariffs and uncertainty, but firm-levelevidence on their joint role after the 2025 shocks remains limited. Filling this gap, we use a firm-level event-study design to disentangle a trade exposure channel from a sensitivity-to-uncertainty channel. Firms withgreater U.S. trade exposure and higher uncertainty sensitivity experienced the sharpest valuation declinesfollowing the initial tariff announcement on April 2, but also the strongest rebounds after the announced pauseand subsequent trade agreements. Both channels are economically meaningful and of similar magnitude, andjointly account for a substantial share of the market response. Together, they represent about 20 percent of thestock price decline among tradable firms after April 2 and about 10 percent of the rebound after tradeagreements. Overall, the findings show that trade policy affects firms not only through expected tariff costs, butalso by reshaping policy predictability in ways that affect firms’ investment incentives. Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations –Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty Channels Robert Beyer∗Hui Tong†Xinbei Zhou‡ March 2026 Abstract This paper investigates how the 2025 U.S. trade-policy shocks propagated to globalequity valuations. Country-level studies have documented the aggregate costs of tariffsand uncertainty, but firm-level evidence on their joint role after the 2025 shocks remainslimited. Filling this gap, we use a firm-level event-study design to disentangle a trade-exposure channel from a sensitivity-to-uncertainty channel.Firms with greater U.S.trade exposure and higher uncertainty sensitivity experienced the sharpest valuationdeclines following the initial tariff announcement on April 2, but also the strongestrebounds after the announced pause and subsequent trade agreements. Both channelsare economically meaningful and of similar magnitude, and jointly account for a sub-stantial share of the market response.Together, they represent about 20 percent ofthe stock-price decline among tradable firms after April 2 and about 10 percent of therebound after trade agreements.Overall, the findings show that trade policy affectsfirms not only through expected tariff costs, but also by reshaping policy predictabilityin ways that affect firms’ investment incentives. JEL Classification: F13, F14, G14Keywords: tariffs, trade exposure, uncertainty, corporate market valuations 1Introduction In early 2025, the United States announced the imposition of sizable tariffs against most ofits trading partners. This reignited global concerns over U.S. market access and persistenttrade policy uncertainty. In response, global stock markets experienced substantial volatility,reflecting frequent revisions to expected cash flows and risk premia. Current macroeconomicprojections identify both the elevated U.S. tariffs and heightened uncertainty as significantdrags on investment and GDP growth (IMF, 2025). While existing macroeconomic studiesunderscore the adverse effects of higher tariffs and uncertainty on aggregate activity, thereis, to our knowledge, little firm-level evidence on the extent to which these two channels haveoperated in the aftermath of the 2025 U.S. trade policy shocks. This paper seeks to fill that gap.It examines market valuations of listed firms acrossglobal markets following the recent unexpected tariff announcements and heightened tradepolicy uncertainty, focusing on two key channels: trade exposure to the United States andinvestment sensitivity to uncertainty. We investigate short-term market movements after theannouncements of universal tariffs on April 2, the subsequent pause announcement on April 9and the signing of trade agreements between the United States and seven countries, as well asthe agreement on key parameters of the EU–U.S. trade relationship on July 27.1Our baselinesample for the un