解开灾难与家庭暴力的联系：尼日利亚冲突和洪水对家庭经济的影响（英）

11167 Produced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper11167This paper investigates the impact of conflicts on flood-af-fected households in Nigeria, utilizing a balanced paneldatasetderived from the Living Standards Measure-ment Survey data collected in 2012, 2015, and 2018,and geo-spatial conflict data from the Armed ConflictLocation and Event Data Project. The analysis employsdifference-in-difference regressions to examine whetherconflicts have a measurable effect on households andwhether this effect is intensified when considering floodexposure. The study focuses on households’ consumptionexpenditure outcomes, comparing conflict-affected andnon-conflict-affected households, and further narrowsThis paper is a product of the Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Department. It is part ofa larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policydiscussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at kbenbih@worldbank.org. down to flood-affected households. The results indicatethat conflict-affected households experience lower con-sumption expenditure compared to non-conflict-affectedhouseholds, with the adverse effects being significantlymore pronounced for those also affected by floods. Thestudy also investigates these effects on households’ income,albeit with a smaller sample. Similar findings, although lessrobust, were noted when analyzing income trends. The find-ings underscore the compounded vulnerabilities faced byhouseholds in conflict and flood-prone areas, highlightingthe need for integrated policy interventions to address thecompounded impacts of these shocks. Unpacking the Disaster-FCV Nexus: HouseholdEconomic Impacts of Conflict and Floods in NigeriaKarima Ben Bih; World BankBramka Jafino;World BankChloe Desjonqueres; World BankSolene Masson; World BankKeywords:Conflict Impact; Flood-Affected Households; Nigeria; Difference in Difference;Consumption Expenditure; Geo-spatial Data, LSMS, MicroeconomicsD10, D12, D74, D81, F35, F51,R15The authors are grateful to Arden Finn, Alvina Erman, Edmundo Murrugarra, and Mook Bangalorefor their thoughtful comments, suggestions, and guidance.The paper has benefitted fromsupport from Esesua Ikpefan, Katie Peters, and Hiromi Akiyama. JEL: IntroductionThis paperinvestigates the impact of conflicts on flood-affected households in Nigeria. Usingobservational household survey data(the Living Standards Measurement Survey– “LSMS”)andgeo-spatialconflict data (from ACLED), the analysis relies on a balanced panel dataset derived from LSMSdata collected in2012,2015 and 2018, and restricts the sample toconflicts occurringonlyafter 2015.This paper uses difference-in-difference regressions to investigate the measurable effects of conflict onhousehold consumption expenditure, and whether these effects are intensified by flood exposure. Weanalyze outcomes for both conflict-affected and non-conflict-affected households, considering theirflood exposure, and specifically assess the impact of conflict on flood-affected households.Resultsshow that conflict-affected households experience lowerconsumption expenditure thanhouseholdsnot affected by conflict. This differenceisaccentuated forconflict-affected householdsthat are alsoaffected by a flood. We further corroborate these findings with a smaller scale analysis of incomeutilizing the same methodology. The findings of the analysis of impact onincome can be found inAnnexA.Data and methodologyDataThe data used in this analysis is built upon householdsurvey and geospatial data for conflict andflooding. The survey data is a balanced panel dataset derived from Living Standards MeasurementSurvey (LSMS) data collected across Nigeria in 2012,12015,2and 2018,3to estimate the impact ofconflict on households’consumption expenditure (in Nigerian naira,₦).4Although LSMS surveysare constructed to facilitate longitudinal studies, the LSMS data of Nigeria is characterized by alack of harmonization over time, marked by high attrition rates that may have been caused bycross-state displacement, and bysignificantquestionnairedifferencesintroduced in the 2018survey. The full