贸易政策冲击与企业估值——解开贸易和不确定性的渠道

Trade Policy Shocks and Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty Channels Robert Beyer, Hui Tong, and Xinbei Zhou WP/26/70 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026APR European Department Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations—Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty Channels Authorized for distribution byMalhar Nabar IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper investigates how the 2025 U.S. trade-policy shocks propagated to global equityvaluations. Country-level studies have documented the aggregate costs of tariffs and uncertainty, but firm-levelevidence on their joint role after the 2025 shocks remains limited. Filling this gap, we use a firm-level event-study design to disentangle a trade exposure channel from a sensitivity-to-uncertainty channel. Firms withgreater U.S. trade exposure and higher uncertainty sensitivity experienced the sharpest valuation declinesfollowing the initial tariff announcement on April 2, but also the strongest rebounds after the announced pause Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations – Robert Beyer∗Hui Tong†March 2026 Abstract This paper investigates how the 2025 U.S. trade-policy shocks propagated to globalequity valuations. Country-level studies have documented the aggregate costs of tariffsand uncertainty, but firm-level evidence on their joint role after the 2025 shocks remainslimited. Filling this gap, we use a firm-level event-study design to disentangle a trade-exposure channel from a sensitivity-to-uncertainty channel.Firms with greater U.S.trade exposure and higher uncertainty sensitivity experienced the sharpest valuationdeclines following the initial tariff announcement on April 2, but also the strongest JEL Classification: F13, F14, G14 1Introduction In early 2025, the United States announced the imposition of sizable tariffs against most ofits trading partners. This reignited global concerns over U.S. market access and persistenttrade policy uncertainty. In response, global stock markets experienced substantial volatility,reflecting frequent revisions to expected cash flows and risk premia. Current macroeconomicprojections identify both the elevated U.S. tariffs and heightened uncertainty as significant This paper seeks to fill that gap.It examines market valuations of listed firms acrossglobal markets following the recent unexpected tariff announcements and heightened tradepolicy uncertainty, focusing on two key channels: trade exposure to the United States and investment sensitivity to uncertainty. We investigate short-term market movements after theannouncements of universal tariffs on April 2, the subsequent pause announcement on April 9and the signing of trade agreements between the United States and seven countries, as well asthe agreement on key parameters of the EU–U.S. trade relationship on July 27.1Our baseline Our two channels are constructed using pre-2025 data. Following Claessens et al. (2012),we measure a firm’s trade sensitivity by estimating how its sales co-move with exports fromits home country to the United States at the 3-digit SIC industry level over 2017–2023, anduse the firm-specific slope coefficient as a summary measure of exposure to U.S. demand. Foruncertainty sensitivity, we draw on the Kim and Kung (2017) asset redeployability index, Our main findings are as follows.First, after the April 2 announcement, when both expected future tariffs and trade policy uncertainty increased, firms in tradable sectors withhigher export exposure to the United States and greater sensitivity to uncertainty experi- enced significantly lower cumulative returns.Controlling for standard firm characteristicsand both channels, firms at the 90thpercentile in U.S. trade sensitivity experienced a 1.09 percentage point larger decline in cumulative returns than firms at the 10thpercentile, andthe corresponding gap for uncertainty sensitivity was 1.01 percentage points.Taken to-gether, a firm highly exposed along both dimensions saw cumulative returns around the Second, the announcement of a tariff pause on April 9 triggered a sharp, targeted reversalin market valuations. As the immediate threat of escalating tariffs and policy uncertaintytemporarily subsided, the exact same firms that suffered on April 2 experienced a significant rebound. Controlling for standard firm characteristics and both channels, firms at the 90percentile in U.S. trade sensitivity experienced a 0.52 percentage point larger increase in cumulative returns than firms at the 10thpercentile, and the corresponding gap for uncer-tainty sensitivity is 0.53 percentage points.Taken to