Zoom（ZM）2027财年第一季度：增长继续逐步改善

peter.weed@bernsteinsg.com Rating +1917344 8342luwei.yang@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target Zoom (ZM) FQ1'27: Growth continues to incrementally improve it is creeping up into the mid-single-digit range, delivering CC revenue growth of +5.7% YoYtheir first time over5%YoY growth since FY23 (calendar 2022). It was a beat of 2.2%vs. CC midpoint guide, their largest beat since FY24. While it was already included in theguide, we also emphasize this growth rate includes a headwind of~$19MM ARR from theirRingCentral churn (reported lastquarter)-normalized for the churn, growth would havebeen+4Obps at 6.1%YoY.On thebottom line (non-GAAPOpM)thebeatwas anarrower1.0%, which was a stepup from eventhinner beats thelast couplequarters, but stll wellbelow the level of margin delivery regularly seen before that. Revenue strengthreflectsboth Enterprise and Online momentum.Yes,the onlinebusiness (39%of revenue)does benefitfromrecent priceincreases (MoM increasedayearprice increases, is showing some small positive growth.Evenmore importantly,it also showsthe momentum in their $100K+ enterprise business (33% of revenue), which we imputeis growing just under 10% YoY.As we mentioned above,this enterprise growth is in theface of churn from RingCentral (~120bps points headwind to the segment).The companyemphasizestheenterprisetractionreflects customerdemandforcontactcenter,and Al-featurerich ZoomPhone andconferencing (AI Companionpaid MAUs wereup+184%YoY inthe quarter, although we note this was off a smaller base in -1 year). Al features keep coming. The company remains in investment mode around R&D,andshowed off ZVA Receptionist, Zoom Al Services and Seer by Workvivo (people insights, likeBrightHire, and ZCX growing at "high double digit” YoY growth. InvestmentImplications Weslightlytweak our revenue from Q1 results.NOTE:wenow includeZoom's carrying valueof Anthropic equityat~$1.3B(basedoncompanydisclosure).Wemaintainour50/50DCF(0%terminal growth, 11%WACC)andraise to 6x Price-to-NTM Revenue (up from5x) duetoAnthropic stake (private). Our PT rises to $103, and we maintain our MP rating. Onlinebusiness remains stablewith earlysigns of pricingsensitivitybut continued monetizationupside.Churn increased modestly(~2Obps)tiedtoprice changes,butmanagement continuesto see strong engagement, record usage levels,and benefits from bothlast year's monthly and this year's ~6% annual price increases flowing into results. Growth in online isphoneexpansion)anddownmarketproductexpansion Enterprise revenue growth (~7%) includes a ~60bps headwind from prior white-label churn, implying underlying trends remainstabletoimproving.TheheadwindfromthechurnwillremainmostlylinearforeachquarterinFY27.Netdollarexpansionticked upto 99%, supported by lower churn,product expansion,and Almonetization,though near-term headwinds persistfromthechurn eventandmix shifttowardnet newCCaaS/channel customers willbenefitthe netdollarexpansionnumbermoregradually. influenced by rounding effects and prior churn roll-offs rather than underlying weakness.Strength in >$1M customers andcontinuedseatexpansionsignal healthyenterpriseexecution. acceleration.Management highlighted that Al is“inflecting”overall growth,with the strongest impact in Contact Centerwhere attach rates remain highand multi-product bundles (Phone+CCaaS +Al)are driving wins.New Alproducts (CustomAl Companion, virtual agents, Al insights, APls) are expanding monetization across enterprise and emerging in online, thoughmanagement still characterizes Alcontributionas early-stage support automation),federatedmodel strategy (SLMs + LLMs),and continued cost optimization.Operating margins benefit fromSBC to cash compensation.This tailwind from the amortization change will be a two-year impact but shouldtaper afterward. R&D investment remains disciplined despite elevated AIfocus, with improving ROl visibility. R&D is tracking withinthe long-termtarget range (~12-13%of revenue),withmanagement emphasizinga transition fromheavy investmentto Zoomexpands its Al APlsandecosystemintegrations,butthemanagementbelieves its coremonetizationremainsecosystems(e.g.,Anthropic),positioningitselfasaplatform.Managementemphasizedabalancedapproach:monetizingincrementalusecases whilepreservingpremiumvalue incoreofferings likeCustomAl Companion (withthethreecorevalues improved slightly from seat compression abatingand the companycontinuingtowork on reducingdiscountinglevels,andtheTTMNRRalsoimprovedfrom98%to 99% continue to lead therevenue growth rate, while thegrowthratesfromsmallerenterprisecustomersremainmorevolatile References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Ber