城市建筑环境中的热风险和适应性

Heat risk and adaptation in theurban built environment An analysis of impacts on health and productivityin the UK’s towns and cities. May 2026 Overview: Key messagesand outcomes of this study Why heat matters in the UK Objectives of this study This analysis focused intentionally on heat-relatedmortality and productivity impacts. These metricsenable a consistent national-scale assessment,while also allowing sufficient spatial resolutionfor locally-specific conclusions to be drawn. Theproposed adaptation measures have focused onphysical interventions for buildings and the urbanrealm. It is acknowledged, however, that heat haswider impacts and can be addressed through a Extreme heat is one of thefastest-growing climate risks facingpeople living and working in UKtowns and cities. Recent summers haverepeatedly broken national temperaturerecords, with 2022 marking the firsttime the UK exceeded 40°C, causing This study was commissioned by the ClimateChange Committee (CCC) to determine how theUK’s urban built environment can be adapted toescalating heat risks. The analysis was designedto identify the most cost-effective strategies forreducing heat-related mortality and economicproductivity losses in UK towns and cities. The The study answered four core questions: What is the present and projected future riskfrom urban heat in the UK, in terms of health(mortality) and economic productivity? The studyexamined heat-related mortality and productivity As with all modelling of complex urban andenvironmental systems, results are subject touncertainty and should be interpreted as indicativerather than definitive. The analysis is intended to The impacts are already visible. Hot weatherworsens underlying health conditions, drivesexcess deaths and affects the most vulnerablepeople first – older adults, children, those withchronic illnesses, and people experiencingdeprivation or disadvantage. Heat also reduces How do adaptation needs vary between regions,urban typologies, and climate scenarios? Thestudy developed five adaptation packagescomprising building and urban-scale heat The impact of heat is felt more intensely in urbanareas. High building density, paved surfaces andlimited green space - combined with heat generation Which adaptation actions and packages deliverthe greatest benefits, and how should they besequenced over time? The study evaluated a widerange of building-scale and urban-scale measures As the UK continues to urbanise and the climatewarms, understanding heat risks – and the options Which adaptation package provides the greatestvalue for money for the UK to reduce heat-relatedmortality and productivity losses?A cost–benefitanalysis identified a proposed cost-effective Increasing temperatures will have a growingimpact on economic productivity.This analysisshows approximately 0.93 million working dayswere lost in 2022 due to extreme heat, costing theUK approximately £450 million in Gross ValueAdded (GVA). By 2030, heat-related losses areprojected to increase to around 1.8million workingdays in an extreme year, with associated GVAimpacts of approximately £720million. Lookingahead to the 2050s, heat-related lost working timeis projected to increase substantially—around 3.6 As temperatures rise, higher productivitysectors will be significantly affected, bringingimpacts for the UK economy.In the present day(2022), extreme urban heat primarily impacts theproductivity of outdoor-based sectors, such asconstruction. However, without adaptation heat Headlinefindings As the climate warms, if no action is takenannual heat-related deaths could triple by the2050s, with an even sharper increase in extremeheat years(Figure 1). This study shows that theimpact of extreme heat is projected to accelerate ata more-than-linear pace. Excess deaths in typicalyears may grow by 60% in the 2030s (3,000 peryear) and 200% in the 2050s (5,700 per year).Extreme heat years may see heat-related deaths Heat risk in the UK is rising rapidly,affecting nearly all urban areas. This analysis shows that the impacts of extreme heaton mortality and economic productivity are alreadysignificant and will intensify sharply under centralprojected climate scenarios corresponding to globalmean temperature increases of 1.5oC warming in Heat impacts are disproportionatelyfelt across the UK. In 2022, the UK experienced the highest numberof heat-related deaths on record, with olderadults identified as particularly vulnerable.Theanalysis estimates around 4,000 heat-related deathsoccurred in 2022, a figure that exceeds twice thenumber of road traffic deaths recorded in the sameyear [2]. Even in a typical UK summer, heat can stillcause significant loss of life, causing an estimated The South East currently experiences the mostheat-related deaths in the UK,and this trend isexpected to continue into the future. By the 2050s,forecasts suggest that almost one-quarter of allheat-related fatalities in the country will occurin the South East (se