中国消费追踪

Consumer Consumption recovery remains slow + Retail sales growth in April slowed to 0.2% y-o-y (Bloomberg:2%) Head ofA-shareConsumerResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedkathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 215066 2007Darron Xue* (Reg. No. S1700518110002) + Changes to watch: Property prices in tier-1 cities rising m-o-mfortwoconsecutivemonths;hightemperaturesmayboostdemandforbeerairconditioners Analyst, A-share Food & Beverage and Pulp & PaperHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddarron.xue@hsbcqh.com.cn+8675588983407Li Quan*(Reg.No.S1700520030002) +Stocks of themonth:Yanjing Brewery,Midea (A/H),YUTOPackaging-all rated Buy Analyst,A-ShareConsumerSectorHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedli.quan@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3471Eric Liu* (Reg. No. S1700525040001) Lower-than-expected retail sales growth in April.Retail sales growth furtherslowed to 0.2% y-o-y in April (Bloomberg consensus: 2%, 4M26 growth: 1.9%), owingto high bases of categories benefiting from subsidy policy, such as: householdappliances (-15%), autos (-15%) and furniture (-10%). Gold and jewellery also saw a21% y-o-y decline as consumers stayed on the sidelines due to gold price adjustments.Catering revenue has been outgrowing retail sales of goods y-t-d, up 2.2% y-o-y inApril and up 3.8% y-o-y in 4M26. Looking ahead in May, given the high base in thesame period of 2025 (total retail sales growth of 6.4% was the highest in the wholeyear, among which, household appliances [+53%] and communications equipment[+33%] saw high growth thanks to the subsidy policy), and the weak travel dataduring the 2026 Labour Day holidays (average daily travels and travel expenses inChina grew 3.6% y-o-y and 2.9% y-o-y, respectively, during the Labour Day holidays,decelerating from y-o-y growth of 6-7% during the previous holiday period), we thinkthere is stll some pressure on retail sales growth in May. HSBC Qianhai Securities Limitederic.x.c.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662053Doris Luo* (Reg. No. S1700524120003) Analyst,A-shareConsumerResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddoris.y.s.luo@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3161 *Emplyed byanon-US affliateofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, andisnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRAregulations Changes to watch. In April,prices of newly built residential properties /second-handresidential properties in tier-1cities rose 0.1% and0.4% m-o-m,respectively,both ofwhichhavebeenrisingfortwoconsecutivemonthsdespitethedownwardtrendofoverallhomeprices.Inaddition,accordingtoXinhua.com(14May2026)andtheNational Climate Centre, due to the El Nino effect, this summer and autumn will becharacterised by'south flood and north drought with frequent heatwaves'in China,and the risk of extreme weather is 30-50% higher than previous years. We expecthightemperatures to boost demand for beer and air conditioners. Stocks of themonth.(1)Yanjing Brewery:We like the continuous ramp-up ofYanjing's major product U8. In addition, hot weather in the North started earlier thisyear, which could be positive for the beer sector. We expect 22% y-o-y earningsgrowth in 2026, far above the industry average. The stock is trading at a 17x 2026ePE. (2) Midea Group: We believe the company has the ability to cope with variousuncertainties.We expectits earnings to remain resilient and the companyto stepupreturn to shareholders. Both A/H shares are trading at c14x 2026e PE, with anestimated dividend yield of 6%.(3) YUTO: We are bullish on its orders of data centreliquidcoolingandAlglassescomponents,aswellascustomerexpansion.Ithasalready won liquid cooling orders from Nvidia. The stock is trading at a 21x 2026ePE. See valuation and risks on page 14. HSBCFundingtheFutureSurveySentiment, Al and Private CreditClick to view Disclosures&Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Qianhai Securities Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Midea Group (000333 CH/300 HK): A/H: Buy/Buy: Annual Global Investor Day takeaways,11 May 2026MideaGroup(000333CH/300HK):A/H:Buy/Buy:Strongbusinessresilienceamidexternaluncertainties, 30 April 2026China Consumer Staples: Fighting an uphill battle, 6 May 2026YUTO Packaging Technology (002831 CH), Buy: Stable core business: promising new business,29April2026 Charts navigation:Macro focusShare performance and valuationSubsector- Food & BeverageSubsector- CosmeticsSubsector- Hotel & TourismSubsector-Light Manufacturing&FurmitureSubsector-Home appliances Exhibit 18.Key eventsTimeEvent 4/21/2026State Council released The Opinions on Expanding Capacity and Improving Quality of the Services Sector.According to the circular, the service sector willmake significant progress in its high-quality development by 2030, with the total scale expected to reach RMB100trn. A higher-quality,better structured andmorevitaldevelopmentlandscape wllbebasicallyfomed,building infuential and compe