中国化工行业投资者反馈研究报告

Chemicals duration of the Middle East conflict, and unattractive valuations Head, A-share Petrochem&New Materials ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedyi.ru@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662008Jill Huang* (Reg. No. S1700524120002) Analyst,A-share Petrochemicaland New MaterialsHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedjll.q.huang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86215066 2024 structuralpositives,butweexpectnear-terminvestorpushback takeawaysfrominvestorsfeedbackasfollows. not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Positioning remains light: Investors believe the chemicals sector remains difficult totrade. As a midstream industry,volatility in chemical product prices, often amplifiedby movements in crude oil, creates significant pressure on corporate operations.As aresult, most investors are maintaining low exposure to the sector and are avoidingtrading during the Middle East conflict. Concerns that H1 2026 marks an earnings peak; post-conflict normalisationimplies fairer valuation: Investors believe the Q1 2026 earnings beats of some listeddownstreamchemicalproductpricessinceMarch.InvestorsareconcernedthatQ1orQ2 may represent peak earnings. Under a normalised post-conflict environment in2H26, the elevated profitability seen in 1H26 may not be sustainable, implying thatcurrent valuations look more fairly valued.Most investors therefore prefer to wait forgeopolitical uncertainty to ease before repositioning into structural opportunities. Demand concerns amid elevated oil prices: Although oil prices remain elevated,chemical product prices have broadly declined sinceMay (source:Wind),whichtodownstreamprocurementanddemandmayalreadybenegativelyaffectedbyhighfeedstock costs.Meanwhile, investors are structurally avoiding products with greaterexposureto industrial andpropertydemand,giventheirhighersensitivityto cyclicalfluctuations. Against this backdrop, investors agree that gas-based chemicalproducers with feedstock cost advantages still warrant some allocation. However, themarketis also concerned that anydeclineincrude andproducts couldtriggershareprice corrections in our preferred gas crackerleader such as Satellite Chemical. Fertiliser,wheredemandremainsresilient,isakeyfocusarea:Keyinvestordiscussion topics include (1) when fertiliser export quota policies may be relaxed; (2)whetherglobal fertiliserdemand duringthe currentplantingseasonhas alreadybeensuppressed; and (3) how companies can offset margin pressure from rising sulphurcosts.From a medium-term perspective, investors remain relatively constructive onthe agri-chemicals sector and believe that, if the agricultural cycle begins to recoverin 2H26, fertiliser demand and industry fundamentals could improve accordingly.However,margin compression from elevated input costs for our preferred nameYuntianhuaand Chanhen remainskey investor concerns in 2Q26. HSBCFundingtheFutureSurveySentiment, Al and Private CreditClick to view Disclosures&Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must beread withthedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views orforecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Yi Ru and Jill HuangImportantdisclosures Equities:Stockratings and basis for financialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:The target price is based on the analyst's assessment of the stock's actual current value,although we expect it to take six to 12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock willH