吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国：吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国国家银行季度预测模型回顾

REPUBLIC OF KYRGYZSTAN Review of Quarterly Projection Model of theNational Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic FEBRUARY 2026 PREPARED BYMartin Fukač(LTX) and Stanislav Tvrz (STX) Authoring Department(s): Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia RegionalCapacity Development Center (CCAMTAC), © 2026 International Monetary Fund[HLS/26/025] High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportCaucasus, Central Asia and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC)Institute for Capacity Development (ICD)Review of Quarterly Projection Model of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz RepublicPrepared by Martin Fukačand Stanislav Tvrz TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of the assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives,findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT: This report summarizes the findings and recommendations from technical assistanceprogram provided by the International Monetary Fund’s Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia RegionalCapacity Development Center to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic in 2023. The program aimedto review and enhance the forecasting performance of the central bank’s core macroeconomic projection The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org International Monetary Fund, IMF PublicationsP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.T. +(1) 202.623.7430 • F. +(1) 202.623.7201publications@IMF.org Acknowledgments DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS Switzerland, Russia, China, Korea, United States, European Union, Asian Development Bank, Poland Background In response to a request from the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR), the IMF’s Caucasus,Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC), in collaboration with theInstitute for Capacity Development (ICD), conducted two technical assistance (TA) missions in 2023. Theobjective was to review and enhance the forecasting performance of the NBKR’s Quarterly ProjectionModel (QPM), a core component of its Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) supporting the Summary of Findings The QPM was found to be fit for purpose, with in-sample and out-of-sample performance consistent withinternational standards for similar types of tools. A marginal improvement in the projection tool’sperformance was achieved through recalibration of the parameters related to the long-term economictrends in the Kyrgyz economy. Staff forecasts, those integrating model-based forecasts with expert The newly developed FQM was successfully integrated into NBKR’s FPAS infrastructure. It providesautomated, real-time tracking of forecast errors across the medium-term horizon and early warningsignals, enabling timely identification and correction of accumulating inaccuracies where possible. Summary of Recommendations To enhance the forecasting process and institutional capacity, the following key recommendations were Forecasting Process Improvements:Scrutinize NNTF and external assumptions at the start of eachforecasting round. Implement structured training programs for junior staff, leveraging ICD’s online and Forecast Quality Monitoring: Update the FQM quarterly to track forecast errors and adjust input Strengthening FPAS:Enhance the forward-looking content of monetary policy presentations to theNBKR Board, including the introduction of endogenous policy rate projections (or assumptions), riskassessments, and alternative scenarios. The authorities were further encouraged to: (i) institutionalize Human Resources Development:Consider developing a comprehensive training and development planfor expert staff in monetary policy areas to ensure continuity and safeguard the FPAS-related