2025年新加坡年度磋商报告

Singapore - 2025 Acknowledgments 1. This Annual Consultation Report on Singapore has been prepared in accordance with thefunctions of AMRO to monitor and assess the macroeconomic status and financialsoundness of its members; identify relevant risks and vulnerabilities; report these to 2. This Report is drafted on the basis of the Annual Consultation Visit of AMRO to Singaporefrom August 11 – September 5, 2025 (Article 5 (b) of the AMRO Agreement). The AMROMission team was led by Dr. Runchana Pongsaparn, Group Head and Lead Economist.Members included Pim-orn Wacharaprapapong, Economist (Country Desk Economist);KoonHui Tee,Senior Economist;Catharine Kho,Senior Economist;Yoki Okawa,Economist; Leilei Lu, Economist; and Laura Britt Fermo, Senior Economist. AMRO DirectorYasuto Watanabe and Chief Economist Dr. Dong He participated in key policy meetings 3. The analysis in this Report is based on information available up to November 24, 2025. 4. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, orby using the term “member” or “country” in this Report, AMRO does not intend to make any 5. On behalf of AMRO, the Mission team wishes to thank the Singapore authorities for theircomments on this Report, as well as their excellent meeting arrangements and hospitality Disclaimer:The findings, interpretations and conclusion expressed in this Report represent theviews of the staff of ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) and are not necessarilythose of its members. Neither AMRO nor its members shall be held responsible for any consequencefrom the use of the information contained herein. Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... 1Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 3A.Recent Developments and Outlook ..................................................................................... 5 A.2External Sector and the Balance of Payments.........................................................6A.3Fiscal Sector .............................................................................................................7A.4Monetary Conditions and the Financial Sector.........................................................8 B.Risks, Vulnerabilities and Challenges ............................................................................... 11 B.1Near-term Risks to Macro Outlook .........................................................................11B.2Longer-term Challenges and Vulnerabilities ..........................................................13 C.Policy Discussions and Recommendations ..................................................................... 14 C.1Policy Mix to Cushion Near-term Vulnerability .......................................................14C.2Medium to Long-term Strategy to Enhance Competitiveness................................16C.3Regional Integration Initiatives ...............................................................................20Box A. Understanding Singapore’s Public Debt ....................................................................22Box B. Singapore’s potential as a Regional Safe Haven and Lessons Learnedfrom Switzerland ....................................................................................................................24Box C. Long-term Integrated Measures to Contain Health Costs in Singapore ....................28Box D. Special Transfer Expenditure in Singapore ...............................................................30Box E. Singapore’s Digital Banks: Early Progress and Key Lessons....................................33Box F. Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone as Potential Blueprint forRegional Collaboration...........................................................................................................35 Appendices................................................................................................................................ 37 Appendix 1. Selected Figures for Major Economic Indicators ...............................................37Appendix 2. Selected Economic Indicators for Singapore.....................................................40Appendix 3. Medium-term Projections for Key Economic Indicators.....................................42Appendix 4. Balance of Payments.........................................................................................43 Annexes: Selected Issues ........................................................................................................ 51 1. Navigating U.S. Tariffs: Singapore’s Path Forward ...........................................................512. Singapore’s Leadership in Sustainable Finance: Progress, Drivers andRegional Initiatives................................................................................