2025年日本年度磋商报告

Japan - 2025 Acknowledgments 1. This Annual Consultation Report on Japan has been prepared in accordance with thefunctions of AMRO to monitor and assess the macroeconomic status and financialsoundness of its members; identify relevant risks and vulnerabilities; report these tomember authorities; and if requested, assist them in mitigating these risks through thetimely formulation of policy recommendations. This is being done in accordance withArticle 3 (a) and (b) of the AMRO Agreement. 2. This Report is drafted on the basis of the Annual Consultation Visit of AMRO to Japanfrom October 27 – November 7, 2025 (Article 5 (b) of the AMRO Agreement). TheAMRO Mission team was led by Dr. Runchana Pongsaparn, Group Head and LeadEconomist. Members included Mr. Paolo Hernando, Senior Economist (Country Deskeconomist); Mr. Shunsuke Endo, Senior Economist (Country co-desk economist); Mr.Koon Hui Tee, Senior Economist; Mr. Prashant Pande, Senior Financial Specialist;Ms. Pim-orn Wacharaprapapong, Economist; and Dr. (Aruhan) Rui Shi, AssociateEconomist. AMRO Director/CEO Mr. Yasuto Watanabe and Chief Economist Dr.Dong He participated in key policy meetings and courtesy calls with the authorities.This AMRO Annual Consultation Report on Japan for 2025 was peer reviewed by agroup of economists from AMRO’s Country Surveillance, Financial Surveillance, andFiscal Surveillance teams; endorsed by the Policy and Review Group; and approvedby Dr. Dong He, AMRO Chief Economist. 3. The analysis in this Report is based on information available up to January 15, 2026. 4. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographicalarea, or by using the term “member” or “country” in this Report, AMRO does not intendto make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. 5. On behalf of AMRO, the Mission team wishes to thank the Japanese authorities fortheir comments on this Report, as well as their excellent meeting arrangements andhospitality during our visit. Disclaimer:The findings, interpretations and conclusion expressed in this Report represent theviewsof the staff of ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office(AMRO)and are notnecessarily those of its members. Neither AMRO nor its members shall be held responsible forany consequence from the use of the information contained herein. Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................... 2Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 4A.Recent Developments and Outlook...................................................................................... 6A.1Real Sector Developments and Outlook................................................................... 6A.2External Sector and the Balance of Payments ........................................................ 9A.3Monetary Conditions and the Financial Sector ....................................................... 10A.4.Fiscal Sector ........................................................................................................... 16B.Risks, Vulnerabilities and Challenges ............................................................................... 19B.1Near-term Risks to the Macro Outlook .................................................................. 20B.2Longer-term Challenges and Vulnerabilities.......................................................... 23C.Policy Discussions and Recommendations...................................................................... 23C.3Monetary Policy Guiding a Path to Price Stability .................................................. 23C.4Resilient Financial System for a Higher-rate Era.................................................... 26C.5Fiscal Consolidation Aligned with Japan’s Growth Agenda.................................... 27C.6Productivity Enhancing Structural Reforms ............................................................ 30Box A. US–Japan Strategic Investment Framework: Scope and Implications ...................... 33Box B. Measures to Contain Health Care Costs in Japan .................................................... 36Appendices ................................................................................................................................ 38Appendix 1. Selected Figures for Major Economic Indicators ............................................... 38Appendix 2. Selected Economic Indicators for Japan............................................................ 42Appendix 3. Balance of Payments ......................................................................................... 43Appendix 4. Statement of Government Operations ............................................................... 44Appendix 5. Data Adequacy for Surveillance Purposes: A Preliminary Assessment ............ 45Appendix 6. Climate Clipboard—Risks, Responses,