2025年世界白银市场中期回顾报告

Philip Newman and Sarah Tomlinson, Metals Focus November 13th2025 One of the most dramatic years for silver in living memory A brief summary of 2025 Tariff concerns lead to surge in CME deliveriesEFP surge eclipses that of COVIDLiquidity squeeze develops in London, lease rates atunprecedented highsSilver price at record highResilience of physical demand One of the most dramatic years for silver in living memory A brief summary of 2025 Tariff concerns lead to surge in CME deliveriesEFP surge eclipses that of COVIDLiquidity squeeze develops in London, lease rates atunprecedented highsSilver price at record highResilience of physical demand Signs of a tighter market had been building A brief summary of 2025 Tariff concerns lead to surge in CME deliveriesEFP surge eclipses that of COVIDLiquidity squeeze develops in London, lease rates atunprecedented highsSilver price at record highResilience of physical demand SHFE & CME futures activity strengthens SHFE/ CME investor interest started to improve notably from latesummer –interest from retail investors has been particularly strongsince then Beforehand, silver's underperformance weighed on investorinterest. As gold prices surged, more capital required for trading gold,which to some extent has affected silver. The CME micro (1,000oz) driven by retail and professionalinvestors, still bigger than contracts traded on most exchanges. Comfortable record ETP highs, in volume and value terms October 17 – record ETP valuation: $67bnOctober 20 – record ETP volume: 1.25bn ouncesGold ETP holdings remain ~10% below-all-time peak, in volumeterms.ETP gains this year led by: –iShares Europe & N. America: +51Moz–India: +43Moz–Aberdeen: +23Moz–Sprott: +22Moz Liquidity constraints & strong investment led to record prices Silver up 74% this ytd to November 11thGold 55% higherCopper up 24%Bitcoin up just 6%S&P 500 17% firmer Outperformance has driven down the gold:silver ratio Previously, a weak Chinese economy had weighed onthe silver priceNow, silver an outperformer despite ongoingChinese headwinds Outperformance has driven down the gold:silver ratio Approaching a new high (at the time of preparing thispresentation)The rally has been quite different to 2011.That run-up was ultimately unstainableIn 2025, silver has largely held at higher, key price pointsWith corrections often quickly bought in to Mined silver production to remain flat in 2025 at 813Moz Global mine supply is expected to remain flat year-on-year, as growth in North America and Russia is outweighed by lower output fromSouth America, Australia and Indonesia Primary silver miners’ AISC fell by 7% y/y in H1.25 By-product credits, particularly gold, underpinned the drop in primary miners’ AISC Average AISC margins climbed to $19.4/oz in H1.25 Value of M&A activity at a multi-decade high Cash flow from operations looks set to rise significantly in 2025 M&A activity remains buoyant Net hedging for the first time since 2021 Price impact on demand: Resilience in India Indian silver bullion imports exceed 170Moz over first 10 monthsDown 20% y/y, but have surged in recent monthsAir freighting silver in, in response to elevated premiumsUrgency of demand sees FTZ by-passed Physical investment: US slide nearly offset by other markets •India becomes the largest silver retail investment market in2025, last seen in 2019•Germany and Australia also seeing gains this year•US continues to struggle, despite recent uplift in demand Reduced silver loadings across various PV technologies PV cost pressures driving those silver loadings lower Indexed silver loading per watt, by technology Progressive thrifting:optimizing silver usagethrough grid-line design, process enhancementand material innovation.Grid-line design: •SMBB to 0BB (Zero Busbar) Process enhancement: •Laser enhanced contact optimization(LECO)•Fine-line printing technology Material Innovation:•Ag-Cu Paste Substitution:using copper as a viable pathwayto eliminate silver usage. Copper platingSilver-Free Pastes PV silver demand to ease back from record high Automotive and AI investment underpinning demand Automotive:increasing electrification and risingBEV penetration AI investment:supporting the recovery ofconsumer electronics Industrial demand in 2025 the second highest on record 2025 supply/demand estimates The fifth year of a sizeable deficit The Metals Focus Team Nikos Kavalis,Managing Director – SingaporeSarah Tomlinson,Director of Mine SupplyWilma Swarts,Director of PGMsPhilip Klapwijk,Chief ConsultantChirag Sheth,Principal Consultant – MumbaiYiyi Gao,Senior Analyst – ShanghaiÇagdas Küçükemiroglu,Consultant – IstanbulDale Munro,ConsultantHarshal Barot,Senior Consultant – MumbaiAdarsh Diwe,Research Consultant – MumbaiCeline Zarate,Consultant – ManilaJie Gao,Research Analyst – ShanghaiDonnadee Francisco,Mine Supply Analyst – ManilaHao Xu,Research Analyst, ShanghaiRuby Tagoon,Jun