强大的云业务发展前景

Strong cloud business development prospects Target PriceUS$220.10(Previous TPUS$206.10)Up/Downside50.9%Current PriceUS$145.81 Alibaba’s4QFY26 revenue was RMB243.4bn,up 3%YoY,1%belowBloomberg consensus but 0.4% ahead of ourpriorforecast. Adjusted EBITA forthe quarter was RMB5.1bn, down 84% YoY, mainly due to investments intechnology businesses, quick commerce, and user experience, butwas7%ahead of our forecast. For FY26, total revenue grew 3% YoY, while adjustedEBITA declined 56% YoY.Cloud business development remains a bright spot,with YoY revenue growth accelerating to 38% in 4QFY26 from 36% in 3QFY26.We remain positive that Alibaba is one of the key beneficiaries of the AI themewithin our coverage universe. Supportedby strong demand, we are positive onfurther acceleration in cloud revenue growthespecially Model-as-a-Service(MaaS)related services, as well as margin expansion, which we believe shouldsupport avaluationrerating of Alibaba. In addition, the quick commerce (QC) China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hkStock Data Strong development outlookfor cloud business.Cloud IntelligenceGroup (CIG) delivered 38% YoY revenue growth in 4QFY26, while cloudrevenue excluding Alibaba-consolidated subsidiaries increased by 40%YoY. In 4QFY26, management highlighted that: 1) AI-related revenueaccounted for 30% of external cloud revenue, with its annual run ratereaching RMB35.8bn, and management expects AI revenue to exceed 50%ofexternal revenue in about one year; and 2) AI model and applicationservices(mainly MaaS API revenue and AI native SaaS subscription)ARRrecently surpassed RMB8bn, with management expecting the figure toreach RMB10bn by June 2026 and RMB30bn by end-2026. CIG’s adjusted UE of QC to turn positive in certain months within FY27.WithinAlibabaChina E-commerce Group (ACEG), CMR grew 1% YoY in 4QFY26, or 8%on a like-for-like basis excluding the impact from the change in accountingtreatment.Although adjusted EBITA for ACEG declined 40%YoY in4QFY26 due to investment in QC, managementnoted that EBITA for theconventionale-commerce business was stable YoY excluding theinvestment impact. Management expects QC UE to turn positive in certain Source: FactSet Key business segment updates ACEG(46.2% of4QFY26revenue) In 4QFY26, revenue generated from ACEG was RMB122.2bn, up 6% YoY. Within thesegment, E-commerce/QC/China Commerce revenue changed by-1%/57%/3% YoY,respectively. Within the E-commerce sub-segment, CMR and Direct Sales, Logistics & ForQC,management remained focused on maintaining stable market share whileimproving unit economics, with an increasing focus on high-value food orders and non-foodcategories. Both UE and AOV continued to improve. Management expects UE to turnpositive in certain months during FY27. We maintain our forecast that total losses from QCcould narrow to RMB44bn in FY27E from RMB88bn in FY26E, based on CMBI estimates, Adjusted EBITA for the segment was RMB24.0bn in 4QFY26, down 40% YoY, primarilydue to investments in quick commerce, user experience, and technology. AIDC(13.4%of4QFY26revenue) In 4QFY26, revenue generated from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC)was RMB35.4bn, up 6% YoY. International commerce retail revenue increased by 5% YoY,driven by higher revenue contributions from AliExpress and other international businesses, Adjusted EBITA for AIDC was a loss of RMB138mn in 4QFY26, improving from a loss ofRMB3.6bn in 4QFY25, thanks to significant improvement in AliExpress’ operating efficiency CIG(15.7%of4QFY26revenue) Revenue from CIG came in at RMB41.6bn in 4QFY26, up 38% YoY, primarily driven bypublic cloud revenue growth, including increasing adoption of AI-related products. Overall Management remains constructive on CIG, citing accelerating external cloud revenuegrowth and eleven consecutive quarters of triple-digit AI-related revenue growth, whilecontinuing to invest in AI cloud infrastructure and innovation. Management expects AI- Adjusted EBITA for CIG was RMB3.8bn in 4QFY26, up 57% YoY, driven by revenue growthand improving operating efficiency. Adjusted EBITA margin came in at 9.1%, versus 8.0%in 4QFY25. All others (24.7%of 4QFY26 revenue) Revenue from the AllOthers segment was RMB45.5bn in 4QFY26, down 21% YoY,primarily due to revenuedeclines following the disposals of Sun Art and Intime, as well aslower revenue from Cainiao, partly offset by higher revenue from Freshippo and Alibaba Adjusted EBITA from the AllOthers segment was a loss of RMB21.2bn in 4QFY26,compared with aloss of RMB3.4bn in 4QFY25, primarily due to increased investment intechnology businesses, partly offset by improved results from Cainiao, Hujing Digital Media Revision of forecast and valuation We trim ourFY27E/28E revenue forecasts by 1% each to factor in the lower CMR forecastdue to the change in accounti