CoreWeave - 黑石+谷歌=一个非常强大的人工智能云

nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com ?CRWV company,leveraging$5BinequityfromBlackstoneplus Google'sTPUtechnologystack.Weviewthis as directlycompetitivetothe neoclouds,including CRwV,offeringfurther supportto ourbear neocloud thesis: hyperscalers are themostobviouswinnersoftheAlcloudrace.Google (covered by Mark Shmulik)and Blackstone (covered by Patrick Davitt) are joining forces to standup an Al cloud.The new company aims tobring 5ooMWof capacity online in2027-about half of what CRWVhas active today. - including its specialized Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Google's software and servicesoffering likely dwarfs anyoffered by a neocloud today-if not immediately,then certainlyby the end of 2027.While TPUs have more limited functionality than NVIDIA GPUs, beingpurpose-built for the Google ecosystem, they are meaningfully more power-efficient forspecific Al workloads and accordingly cheaperon a per-token basis.This is an attractivevaluepropfor Al inferencecustomers. assets today,with a potential~$160B in developmentpipeline.On a veryrough basis,thatequates to~10GWofexisting capacity with another10+tofollow-morethan the largepublic data centers combined.The company bringsmeaningful know-howand physical realestate assets- a clear advantage over neoclouds for both growth and margin. The biggest debates around the CoreWeave storyare cost of capital, sustainable long-termmargins,ability to secure more power, and differentiation of the stack..a combinedBlackstone+Google entity should win across all of thosefronts. Sinceinitiating,wehavearticulatedthathyperscalersare"situationships.notspouses"forcompanies like CRwV.This is potentially the first of several hyperscaler-led Al cloud rolloutsthat bothabsorb demandand pressure the neoclouds.Webelieve overthelong-term,Googleand its peers are structurally advantaged on a cost and productbasis; therefore, wemaintainourUnderperformonCoreWeave.Adjusted EPSF26EF27EFinancials is aniticpated to be online bythe end of nextyear.Whilethisnew Alcloud isnot immediately problematicfor CRwV's2o26numbers,webelievethisrepresentsthebeginningofamoreearnesthyperscaleattackofthemarket.An increaseincompetition will pressure CRwV's pricing and margins on new deals and make it more difficult for CRwV to transition towards amoreenterprise-heavybase. may perform well in the near-term on themomentum of those signings; however, on a long-term, fundamental basis, we haveconcerns about the business model and CRwV's role in the infrastructure ecosystem. Ingeneral, wequestion CRwV's abilityto continueto sign large-scalehyperscale dealsasdata center supplybecomes morereadily available (2028+)and are concerned that hyperscalers are likely to attempt head-on competition with neoclouds forenterprise business.We believetoday's Google+Blackstone announcementis representative of this hyperscalers'scale and abilityto spend. We do not believe the structural concerns abate with increased Al demand,though thetimingforour callmay bepushedfurther out. References to"Bernstein"orthe"Firm"inthesedisclosures relateto the following entities:Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. 2027E Adj.EBIT per share of $5.81. RISKS CoreWeave, Inc. The main upside risks to our price target/Underperform rating on CRwV are 1) Delays in hyperscaler built capacity coming onlinemay maintain CRwV value proposition, 2)Development of CRwV's specialized softwareplatform whichmaintains demand forCRwV operated data centers, and3)Continued shortage inpowersupplytopower data centersmay sustain CRwV'spricingpower RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Largeand Mid CapPrice Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges-unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: .Outperform:Stockwill outpacethemarket indexbymorethan15pp : Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp are suspende