中国半导体（H/A股）2025财年及2026年一季度业绩综述：AI驱动需求依然强劲

FY25& 1Q26results wrap: AI-drivendemand remains strong Price Objective Change 11 May 2026 Mixed FY25 results amid ongoing sector divergence This report summarizes the 1Q26/FY25 results for fabless & IDM companies under ourcoverage. A-share semiconductor companies reported mixed FY25 results, with arelatively balanced beat/miss profile and continued divergence across sub-sectors.Sector revenue grew at an average of c.15% YoY in 4Q25, supported primarily byrecovery in computing-related demand, while profitability remained volatile. By segment,companies with memory chips exposure (e.g., Montage) delivered strong results,benefiting from DDR5 penetration and product upcycle tailwinds, whereas power semi EquityChinaSemiconductors Daley Li, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5365 daley.li2@bofa.comOwen Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 6533 Harry Zhuang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7998 1Q26: clearer recovery momentum, led by AI demand Encouragingly, 1Q26 marked a clearer acceleration in sector fundamentals, with revenuegrowth expanding to c.30% YoY on average and earnings growth rebounding moremeaningfully. The improvement was primarily volume-driven, reflecting gradual demandrecovery and early signs of AI-related demand ramp across computing and AIoT. Withinour coverage, Montage and GigaDevice continued to outperform, while AI-related names(e.g., Rockchip) maintained solid growth momentum on product ramp-up and expanding See the list of acronyms inExhibit 33. Exhibit1:We revise our POs for threesemis companies under our coveragePO change Preferred stock picks; estimates & PO changes Considering growth visibility, earnings trajectory and structural positioning,we likeMontagefor its (1) sustained DDR5 upgrade cycle, (2) ramp-up of PCIe Retimer / otheremerging products (e.g., MRCD / MDB), and (3) solid growth of CPU/server shipment. GigaDeviceoffers solid secular growth, driven by continued share gains in DRAM / MCU/ NOR Flash and benefits from memory upcycle.InnoScienceis also preferred forpromising growth outlook with multiple long-term growth drivers (AIDC, auto, robotics). Horizon Roboticsstands out on strong revenue growth and expanding design wins,benefiting from rising ADAS penetration and scaling of its next-generation automotiveSoCs. We also seeRockchipandNCE Poweras beneficiaries of AIoT and power semi We revise our estimates and POs for Montage, Goodix, and Silan. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of We cut earnings forecastsin FY26-27E for Silan and Goodix and raiserevenue andearnings forecasts in FY26-28E for Montage Capex upcycle to drive solid demandGlobally, consensus projects that aggregated capex across top-5 U.S cloud vendors can grow +60% YoY in CY26E,according to BofA U.S Semiconductor Team (report link).Meanwhile, total server capex in China is expected to further rise 25% YoY in 2026E perour estimate. We see promising growth outlook for Montage’s memory interface chips(used in traditional server) and PCIe Retimer (used in AI server), with wider AI adoption Memory upcycles to continue According to BofA Global Memory Tech Team (report on 30 Apr), the memory“super-cycle”is expected to continue into 2027-2028. Key catalysts should be tight chip supplyvs strongly rising AI chip demand. The capex is strongly rising, but actual chip productionvolume is unlikely to grow much even in 2027-28. Most chipmakers seem to be Exhibit9: DRAM spot price softened in 2H March after an exceptionally strong rally from Sept-25 to Jan-2026.DRAM price hit the highest levels in the past25 yearsas the current mainstream DRAM 16Gb DDR5 stood at US$38 and 16Gb DDR4 at $75 as chipmakers reallocated production to HBM andserver-grade DRAM. Previous high level was hit in Oct-17, but it was only $10 range. MCUSales recovery with improving downstream demand According to WSTS data, global MCU demand has started to recover, with both shipmentand ASP trends turning positive since 1Q26, following a prolonged downcycle driven byweakness in automotive and industrial end-markets. The pace of recovery remains In contrast, China has seen a stronger and earlier rebound, supported by resilientdemand in consumer electronics and policy-driven consumption recovery. China MCU revenue returned to positive growth in early 2026, with March 2026 sales up low teensYoY, indicating improving volume momentum. Exhibit10:Lead time for MCU has shortened since 2Q24 but has remained largely stable since 2025Lead time trend for delivery of MCU produ