美国半导体：解构2026年（截至目前...）

from2025and2024forexample).However,givenanalmost80%YoYgrowthfortheindustry in the first quarter of 2026 an interim look appears warranted....Indeed, totalsemiconductor industry revenues reached $299B in Q1,up 79% YoY, reaching levels in asingle quarter that have now exceeded the entire annual output of the industry when westarted our career oh so long ago (Exhibit 1). +12135595917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com +1 917344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com segments grew a very respectable 28% (Exhibit 2).Among the various non-memoryproductcategoriesLogic growth was strongestat+39%(presumably driven byGPUs/accelerators)with MPUs+22%,and mostother segments (MCUs,Analog,Optical,Discretes) up teens YoY. Sensors rose LSD, and DSPs fell 22%.But memory really does takethe cake, growing an astonishing 238% YoY, more than tripling vs Q125 (Exhibit 3),andreaching 46%oftotal semiconductorindustrysales,byfarthe highestpercentage sinceas far back as we have data for (almost 50 years) (Exhibit 4). We suspect this trend willcontinue, with (in our opinion) memory likely to make up half the industry, or more, this year +1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com environment has been solid,butmemorypricing has gone vertical witha growthtrendthat we have never seen in half a century (you really need to look at this chart; Exhibit 5)Industry ASPs overall rose 57% YoY in Q126; excludingmemory pricing was still up~13%with MCUs,discretes,and MPUs up,whileDSP,optical,analog,and sensor ASPs declined(Exhibit 6). Unit growthhealthy in Q1across the board...Unit growthhas also driven revenues,though not as much as pricing YTD. Memory units (chip-level) grew 27% YoY in Q1,with non-memory overall up 13%, and total industry units growing 14%. Analog, MPU,memory, and optical all grew strong double-digits YoY in Q1 (18%, 18%, 27%, and 42%,respectively) with discretes, sensors, MCU, and Logic all up single digits; DSPs were theonly product group to experience unit declines YoY (Exhibit 7).Overall non-memory unitgrowth balanced pricing growth (both up ~13% YoY) (Exhibit 8). Growth inmost productcategories has begun to accelerate in recent quarters. thelast several quarters inbothmemoryandnon-memorycategories (thoughmemoryperformance specificallyleftthelaunchpad in Q1) (Exhibit 9).Ona blended basis unitgrowth has been fairly consistent over the last 4-5 quarters,though some categories(optical,analog,MPU,MCU,and memory in particular)have seenacceleration (Exhibit1o).Blended pricingtrends have strengthened overthelast several quarters however,driven inparticular by analog, logic, and memory (Exhibit 11) (continued on next page) It was not that long ago that most industry watchers were suggesting the semiconductorsigns of slowing down, and stocks have responded,mostly due to sharp upward revisions inearningsestimates teens P/FE on realistic CY27E EPS)and continue to underpin AIdemand.Every driver in theindustry right nowtranslates to a needfor higher WFE; weremain bullish semicap.Andwehave warmedtoAMDon CPUdemandaswell as broader Al acceleratoropportunity,andthink a $20 EPS in 2028 is plausible. We rate NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, and AMDOP, with ADI, NXPI, TXN, QCOM, and INTC MP. expensive. AMD (Outperform, $525):Expectations remain high, but exposure to Al demand driving both a CPU and GPU story canprovide substantial growth. AVG0(Outperform,$525):Astrong2025Altrajectoryseemssettoaccelerate into2026,bolsteredbysoftware,cashdeployment,and superbmargins &FCF. INTc (Market-Perform, $65): Server strength is helping the company get back on their feet, and narrative/headlines may fuelthe vibe for now. NvDA(Outperform,$3oo):Thedatacenter opportunity is enormous,and still early,withmaterial upside still possible NxPI(Market-Perform, $27o):Thepace of recovery remains open fordebate. Qcom (Market-Perform,s140):Memory headwinds appearlikelytopressure smartphonebuilds and numbers appear high;we shall see if datacenter dream is enough to attract buyers. TXN (Market-Perform,$25o): TXN shares feel fully valuedin the current environment. AMAT(Outperform,$425):We maintainapositive viewonsecular WFEgrowth and seea numberof drivers for AMATincluding SAM growth,an increasing services narrative, and capital return. KLAc(Outperform,$1,875): Amid positive WFE trends KLAC possesses structural growth drivers,a strong and durablecompetitive position,lower China replacement risk,and disciplinedcapital allocation,warranting premiumvaluation. LRCX (Outperform, $325): The company is benefiting from key inflections (GAA, packaging, HBM, NAND upgrades) andCY26/27commentaryseems supportive. EXHIBIT1:Thesemiconductorindustrygrewalmost80%YoYinQ126reaching~s1.2Tinannualized revenue in1Q,following22%growthlastyearand18%growthin1Q25SemiconductorIndustryRevenueGrowth 2026.This is the highest share ever observed in almost 50 years, and well above thepreviouspeak of 37% seen in1995 MCU and Discretes also showed healthy price increases YoY, albeit at muchmore mod