美国半导体行业：2026年1.3万亿美元市场的五大主题

State of the Union:top 5 themesin a$1.3TnCY26 semis TAM Industry Overview Top 5 themes: compute, semicaps, analog, consumer, EDAWe update our global semis industry modelahead of Q1 earnings, reflect our latestoutlook and extend the model out to CY30. We also address key points of debate in AIcapex/CPUs today and highlight top 5 themes in semis. With total semis TAM nowreaching ~$1.3Tn in CY26 (vs. ~$1Tn est. in December), we highlight: 1) Compelling15x-20x fwd valuation for AI compute, networking stocks (top picksNVDA, AVGO,MRVL, AMD, CRDO); 2) Accelerating outlook for semicaps (WFE ~20% CAGR) asmemory investments/cleanroom space and leading logic intensity grows (LRCX, AMAT,MKSI); 3) Analog stocks selectively benefit from industrial restocking coupled with AI,aerospace, defense, power exposure offset by sluggish autos and consumer (ADI,MCHP, NXPI, ALGM); 4) Consumer, especially phones remain sluggish and could stayweaker into CY27 unless memory prices stabilize (QCOM, SWKS); and 5) EDA softwarestocks likely rebound as software sector stabilizes (CDNS, SNPS). Semis now $1.3Tn by CY26, ~$2Tn by CY30 at +20% CAGRWe now see semis/core semis (ex-memory) growth of +65%/+25% YoY in CY26, up from +29%/+22% YoY in December. Key changes are: 1) memory much stronger and pricinggenerally sustainable; 2) server continued outgrowth through CY26/27E; and 3) industrialrecovery; 4) modestly offset by autos, PC, smartphone, and consumer unit headwinds.By CY30E, we expect total semis to reach ~$2.0Tn, growing at +20% CAGR (CY25-30),versus +9% CAGR over the last decade (CY15-25), with core semis alone reaching~$1.1Tn at +13% CAGR growth (vs. +8% CAGR historical). Importantly, we continue toview AI/data center to drive the majority of gains (via compute, networking, memory),with industrial contributing to growths on inventory replenishment and robotics ramp. Server CPU TAMlikely ~$35-40bn in CY26, not $50bn Per ARM(see’Arm Everywhere’ event takeaway here), server CPU TAM is expected toreach ~$50bn in CY26 given increasing roles of CPUs in agentic AI, up from ~$25-30bnin CY25. However with unit growth limited to low-teens YoY (per MU) due to memoryconstraints, this would require an ASP increase of a whopping ~60-70% YoY across allservers (AI and non-AI). Realistically, we see an ASP growth of 20-25% (from rising corecounts) which would lead to overall server CPU TAM growth of 35-40% YoY to ~$35-40bn in CY26. Moreover, we point out INTC/AMD/ARM bottom-up server unit outlook of+20% YoY in CY26 which may be revised down toward 13-15% throughout the year. CY27 vendor view requires faster capex– potential riskWe highlight AI compute bottom-up view (combined DC sales at NVDA, AVGO, AMD) points to $180-200bn incremental sales YoY in CY27 (>50% YoY), well above the currenthyperscale cloud capex growth outlook of $120bn YoY (+16% YoY). However, as we sawthroughout CY25, there could be further capex revisions. We just flag that for everyvendor’s CY27 expectations to be realized, we could require cloud capex of >$1.0Tn(assuming hyperscalers comprise ~60% of global AI capex), vs. current $872bnconsensus, though capex from large private programs (Stargate, etc.), sovereigns, andenterprises could also pick up pace throughout the year. Global Semis Forecast Update We model CY26 semis/core semis (ex-memory) growth of +65%/+25% YoY, led bygrowth in data center. By end market, we model (1) compute and storage up +43% YoY (continued serverstrength); (2) wireless comms down -9% YoY (smartphone unit headwind); (3) auto salesup +3% on sluggish units but improving content; (4) Industrial up +16% YoY on improvedend demand and inventory dynamics since 2H25; (5) consumer down -6% YoY; and (6)wired comms up +28% YoY on data center related infra buildout. In 2026, we see semis/core semis sales grow +65%/+25% YoY. Memory is expected toremain very strong, up nearly +168% YoY (after +81%/+29% YoY growth in CY24/25). By device type, we see CY26 memory sales driven by both DRAM (+183% YoY) andNAND (+151% YoY). Ex-memory, microprocessors (MPUs) strong (+10% YoY) on hyperscaler consumptionmodestly offset by weak PC units, and logic particularly strong (+33% YoY) on AIaccelerator-related demand. We also model industrial-centric markets (MCUs, Analog)seeing recovery following inventory digestion throughout 2024 and 1H25. In CY26, wemodel other markets (discretes, optos, sensors) to generally return to healthy growths(+25% YoY) as well, particularly driven by data center-related optoelectronic demands. Looking at our forecasts versus BofA Global semis bottom-up estimates, we aregenerally in line with the growth trajectory for CY26E/CY27E ex-NVDA (which nowrealizes significant revenue from system sales growth and software). Modestoutperformance versus industry reflects continued industry trends of industryconsolidation and share gains by top vendors. Glossary:ADI: Analog Devices HBM: High-Bandwidth MemoryMCU: Microcontroller Unit Price objective ba