美国半导体国情咨文：2026年1.3万亿美元半导体TAM的五大主题

State of the Union:top 5 themesin a$1.3TnCY26 semis TAM Industry Overview Top 5 themes: compute, semicaps, analog, consumer, EDAWe update our global semis industry modelahead of Q1 earnings, reflect our latestoutlook and extend the model out to CY30. We also address key points of debate in AIcapex/CPUs today and highlight top 5 themes in semis. With total semis TAM nowreaching ~$1.3Tn in CY26 (vs. ~$1Tn est. in December), we highlight: 1) Compelling15x-20x fwd valuation for AI compute, networking stocks (top picksNVDA, AVGO,MRVL, AMD, CRDO); 2) Accelerating outlook for semicaps (WFE ~20% CAGR) asmemory investments/cleanroom space and leading logic intensity grows (LRCX, AMAT,MKSI); 3) Analog stocks selectively benefit from industrial restocking coupled with AI,aerospace, defense, power exposure offset by sluggish autos and consumer (ADI,MCHP, NXPI, ALGM); 4) Consumer, especially phones remain sluggish and could stayweaker into CY27 unless memory prices stabilize (QCOM, SWKS); and 5) EDA softwarestocks likely rebound as software sector stabilizes (CDNS, SNPS). Semis now $1.3Tn by CY26, ~$2Tn by CY30 at +20% CAGRWe now see semis/core semis (ex-memory) growth of +65%/+25% YoY in CY26, up from +29%/+22% YoY in December. Key changes are: 1) memory much stronger and pricinggenerally sustainable; 2) server continued outgrowth through CY26/27E; and 3) industrialrecovery; 4) modestly offset by autos, PC, smartphone, and consumer unit headwinds.By CY30E, we expect total semis to reach ~$2.0Tn, growing at +20% CAGR (CY25-30),versus +9% CAGR over the last decade (CY15-25), with core semis alone reaching~$1.1Tn at +13% CAGR growth (vs. +8% CAGR historical). Importantly, we continue toview AI/data center to drive the majority of gains (via compute, networking, memory),with industrial contributing to growths on inventory replenishment and robotics ramp. Server CPU TAMlikely ~$35-40bn in CY26, not $50bn Per ARM(see’Arm Everywhere’ event takeaway here), server CPU TAM is expected toreach ~$50bn in CY26 given increasing roles of CPUs in agentic AI, up from ~$25-30bnin CY25. However with unit growth limited to low-teens YoY (per MU) due to memoryconstraints, this would require an ASP increase of a whopping ~60-70% YoY across allservers (AI and non-AI). Realistically, we see an ASP growth of 20-25% (from rising corecounts) which would lead to overall server CPU TAM growth of 35-40% YoY to ~$35-40bn in CY26. Moreover, we point out INTC/AMD/ARM bottom-up server unit outlook of+20% YoY in CY26 which may be revised down toward 13-15% throughout the year. CY27 vendor view requires faster capex– potential riskWe highlight AI compute bottom-up view (combined DC sales at NVDA, AVGO, AMD) points to $180-200bn incremental sales YoY in CY27 (>50% YoY), well above the currenthyperscale cloud capex growth outlook of $120bn YoY (+16% YoY). However, as we sawthroughout CY25, there could be further capex revisions. We just flag that for everyvendor’s CY27 expectations to be realized, we could require cloud capex of >$1.0Tn(assuming hyperscalers comprise ~60% of global AI capex), vs. current $872bnconsensus, though capex from large private programs (Stargate, etc.), sovereigns, andenterprises could also pick up pace throughout the year. Global Semis Forecast Update We model CY26 semis/core semis (ex-memory) growth of +65%/+25% YoY, led bygrowth in data center. By end market, we model (1) compute and storage up +43% YoY (continued serverstrength); (2) wireless comms down -9% YoY (smartphone unit headwind); (3) auto salesup +3% on sluggish units but improving content; (4) Industrial up +16% YoY on improvedend demand and inventory dynamics since 2H25; (5) consumer down -6% YoY; and (6)wired comms up +28% YoY on data center related infra buildout. Summary of BofA Semiconductor forecasts by end market In 2026, we see semis/core semis sales grow +65%/+25% YoY. Memory is expected toremain very strong, up nearly +168% YoY (after +81%/+29% YoY growth in CY24/25). By device type, we see CY26 memory sales driven by both DRAM (+183% YoY) andNAND (+151% YoY). Ex-memory, microprocessors (MPUs) strong (+10% YoY) on hyperscaler consumptionmodestly offset by weak PC units, and logic particularly strong (+33% YoY) on AIaccelerator-related demand. We also model industrial-centric markets (MCUs, Analog)seeing recovery following inventory digestion throughout 2024 and 1H25. In CY26, wemodel other markets (discretes, optos, sensors) to generally return to healthy growths(+25% YoY) as well, particularly driven by data center-related optoelectronic demands. Looking at our forecasts versus BofA Global semis bottom-up estimates, we aregenerally in line with the growth trajectory for CY26E/CY27E ex-NVDA (which nowrealizes significant revenue from system sales growth and software). Modestoutperformance versus industry reflects continued industry trends of industryconsolidation and share gains by top vendors. Summary of BofA semis forecasts versus bottoms