Figure：为何质疑万亿美元市场？Figure TAM深度分析 - 4月创纪录交易量持续...
Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com Mahika Sapra+91 226 842 1408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.com Sanskar Chindalia+91 226 842 1445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Harsh Misra+91 226 842 1457harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com Figure: Why second guess trillion dollar markets? Figure TAMdeep-dive - April record volumes continue... Figure is evolving from direct-to-consumer HELOC lender into a tokenized marketplace forcredit markets — yet the market continues to price it as a niche fintech lender, dismissingthe trillion dollar tokenization opportunity. Figure (FIGR) reported another month of recordvolumes -April loan volumes are up 12% MoM to $1.34Bn, second consecutive monthof >$1Bn volumes (108% YoY). The record volumes indicate new loan products andpartnerships have started reflecting in the loan volume numbers. Figure is ramping up newcredit products like auto loans (with Agora partnership), small/medium business loans andDSCR loans. Further, HELOC momentum is expected to improve after a seasonally weak Q1. Figure is going after a $4Tn credit TAM. We believe, the volume growth opportunity morethan offsets any concerns investors have on take rate compression. This is evident in therecent record monthly volumes - 108% YoY growth for April loan volumes. Figure’s AI basedunderwriting helps in standardizing the loan origination process (with or without Figure LOS),tokenization stack enables blockchain based settlement efficiency and transparency, andFigure’s capital market infrastructure provides marketplace liquidity and borrow (throughFigure Connect and Democratized Prime). We expect Figure’s total loan volume to grow from $8.4Bn in CY25 to $16.5Bn by CY27E,growing at a CAGR of 41% over the same period. We expect HELOCs to contribute 80%($13.2Bn) of the total volumes, while new loan categories contribute the remaining 20%($3.3Bn) volumes in CY27E. We believe Figure Connect will continue to be the dominantdistribution channel for Figure, contributing 63% of total Figure volumes by CY27E vs 46%in CY25. We believe as Connect marketplace continues to scale, Figure’s economics willshift towards high margin marketplace revenue. We expect Figure’s EBITDA to grow from$251Mn in CY25 to $548Mn in 2027E, as margins expand from 49% in CY25 to 60% inCY27E. We rate Figure Outperform (PT$67). Investment Implications We rate FIGR Outperform (PT $67). DETAILS FIGURE ECOSYSTEM: REPLACING TRADITIONAL MARKETS WITH BLOCKCHAIN AND AI Figure began as a direct-to-consumer HELOC lender, developing deep expertise in loan origination, pricing, and securitization.Figure developed the credibility and operational know-how to build a full-stack platform with 300+ lending partners,connecting them to institutional and decentralized capital through disintermediated marketplaces. We believe in the lendingsegment, Figure's endgame is not just to be a mortgage lender, but to build blockchain based settlement, liquidity, anddistribution layer for the broader credit markets (Exhibit 1). AI-based underwriting ensures quality and standardized origination:Figure’s business is built on real assets, particularlyloans backed by quality collateral like residential property. Figure leverages AI based underwriting and checks to offer digitalloan products at lower cost and faster settlement time vs traditional players. For example, Figure LOS reduces production costper HELOC by 90% (<$1K on FIGR vs $11K industry average) and reduces time to fund a HELOC by 75% (10 days on FIGRvs industry median 43 days). For third-party loans, Figure applies AI quality checks to ensure underwriting standards are metbefore onboarding assets on Provenance blockchain — preserving homogeneity and investor trust across the ecosystem. Tokenization brings real world assets on blockchain:Figure’s business edge is built around blockchain capabilities -transparency, bilateral settlement and decentralized access. Figure creates an on-chain record for each loan asset, embeddingdata like credit attributes, income, property valuation, and performance history. A token is then minted representing ownershipof the underlying loan asset. The tokenized real-world asset can now be traded 24/7 on blockchain rails with real-timeownership updates, bilateral settlement, and full transparency. Figure abstracts the blockchain layer for its partners, fullyoperating and maintaining the underlying tokenization stack. Disintermediating access to institutional and DeFi capital:Tokenized loans can be held in decentralized wallets to earninterest income, used as collateral to raise short-term financing or sold outright to private credit investors. Figure’s deepdistribution allow partners to access instant liquidity, and improve capital efficiency vs the conventional balance sheet lendingmodel. •Figure Connect (Institutional Capital):Figure Connect is a blockchain based bilateral marketplace that allow loanoriginators to directly sell their loans to bluechip priv
