Figure（FIGR）：3月交易量创纪录 - 速览

Rating mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.comSanskar Chindalia OutperformPrice Target sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.comHarsh Misra ?FIGR harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com Figure (FlGR): Record March volumes - Quick take in consumerloan volumes. March'26 was the first monthfor Figureto cross $1Bn in loanvolumes,demonstratingthe success of Figure'stokenized creditmarketplacebusiness.Weshare ourtakeaways:Consumerloanvolumes continueto grow,tracking~s12Bnannualized origination: Figure reported~$1.2Bn consumer loan volume in March'26, up 33% MoM.March was thefirst month for Figure to cross $1Bn in loan volumes. With Q1'26 volumes at $2.9Bn, Figureisalreadytracking~$12Bn annualizedvolumes,implying~39%YoYgrowthoverCY25.Theproduct-wise loan break up is not disclosed as partof monthly updates, but if we havetohazard a guess, potentially we could see continued growth in first lien share (Q4 19% share)First lien sharegrowth doeslowertake ratevs.standard HELOCs,however, volume growthas reflectedin March shouldoffset in topline and bottomline impact. has continued to grow loan origination volumes, beating seasonality in HELOC origination.InQ1'26,Figure originated $2.9Bn loans,up7%QoQand113%YoY.Webelieve thisdemonstrates thestrength ofFigure'spartnernetwork (300+ active partners)and success of Price Performance,1YRbusiness loans, DsCR,residential transition loans, crypto-backed loans etc. Partnerchannel canleadto rapid newloansgrowth:Webelievenewloan categorieswillcontinue to scale up rapidly,as Figure integrates externally originated assets (non-FigureLoS)with its ecosystem.Figure'spartnership withAgora data for auto loans demonstratesthe potential scalability of this model-Agora originates loans on its platform, Figure performsAlenabledqualitycheckstoensureunderwriting complianceandtokenizesthem.ThisallowsFigure to expand its credit distribution into new loan categories without owningthe frontendorL0S.For2026E,weexpectFiguretooriginate$12.8Bn loanvolumes(implying53%YoY growth)-with new loan categories contributing 13% of total loan volumes ($1.7Bn involumes)vs~4%inQ4'25.We expectConnectmarketplacetobethedominantmodelforFigure, contributing 56% oftotal volumes byCY26E (vs 46% inCY25). DemocratizedPrimeandYLDS:MatchedofferbalanceonDemocratizedPrimegrew79%QoQto$368Mn.YLDSstablecoinsupplyisup83%QoQto$598Mn. Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe"Firm”inthese disclosuresrelateto thefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServices LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2o24onwards)，SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited，SanfordSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才一下·C·八一个株式会社）andanalystsemployedbySocieteGeneraleAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein researchundera Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"”relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. prospects as pure-play tokenization platform and profitable corelendingbusiness. RISKS FigureTechnologySolutions 1. FIGR's business model involve some macro risks, for example, aggressive interest rate decline makes mortgage refinancingmore competitive, impacting the demandfor HELOCs. 2.FIGR's business model is dependent on continued growth of privatecredit, any risks emerging leadingto a slowdown in privatecredit could impact uptake fortokenized credit on Figure's marketplace. categories can affect Figure's loan growth. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges,versus the Bloomberg EuropeDeveloped Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME)for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacificregion,versustheBloombergJapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexUSD(JPL)forstockslistedontheJapaneseexchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX)for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: :Outperform:Stockwill outpacethemarket indexbymorethan15pp : Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp:Underperform:Stock willtrail theperformanceof themarket indexbymore than15pp Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accurately Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Bernstein brand stock ratings are based on a 12-month time horizon Autonomousbrand-commonstocks TheAutonomous brandratescommonstocks as indicated below.AsourbenchmarksweusetheBloomberg Europe5ooBanks And Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomber