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美国半导体:你的半导体邻居持有什么?2026年3月更新

电子设备 2026-04-08 美国银行 匡露
报告封面

What do your semis neighbors own?March2026 update Industry Overview Semis relative weighting 0.84x in March, flat MoMWe use BofA Equity Strategy data(see their March 10threport here) to examine breadth (what percentage of US active managers own) and depth (how much owned in portfoliosrelative to the stock’s weight in the S&P 500 index) of semis & EDA stocks in the S&P500 index, as of the end of Mar.’26 where we saw semis relative weighting stay at 0.84xamongst core funds, remaining at its lowest since June 2012, down from 0.89x (Mar.’25). Semicap relative weight continues to risevs. MU On a YTD basis, S&P500 Semicap has seen the greatest increase in ownership,increasing an average of +287bps led by KLAC (+442bps) with Semicap ownership+138bps MoM in March (KLAC + 304bps). Semicap rel. weight is now +6% YTD withAMAT (+37%), LRCX(+26%), partially offset by TER (-37%) as KLAC flat YTD but stillmost overweight stock at 1.81x.AMAT, LRCX, KLACaverage relative weight has risen+17% YoY to 1.14x vs.MU-9% YoY to 1.23x, likely driven by memory’s high volatilitywith MU’s gross margins approaching near-peak levels. While we note MU are trying toderisk cyclicality via long-term agreements that include a portion of fixed pricing, we stillprefer semicap’s more secular exposure to memory amidst accelerating WFE outlook. Compute ownership & weight flat; EDA down; Analog upComputeownership has increased an average of +219bps YTD, led by AMD +476bps. Compute has seen roughly flat ownership and rel. weight MoM.EDAownership fell anaverage of -83bps MoM (CDNS -110bps MoM), and is now -192bps YTD, highest of allsubsectors while rel. weight -6% MoM and -8% YTD.Analogownership was +66bpsMoM on average with all companies seeing sequential increases in ownership except forADI, whose ownership fell -110bps MoM and is now -31bps YTD while ADI rel. weight -3% MoM, -14% YTD vs. all other analog weightings up QoQ. ON ownership recovering,+55bps MoM but still down -157bps YoY and remaining the second lowest-owned semiscompany above SWKS. NXPI has seen the greatest increase in ownership within analog,rising +193bps MoM to 13% with relative weight +4% MoM but remains down -1% YTD.Lastly, we note optical vendors LITE and COHR were added to the S&P 500 on March23rd and are expected to be included in next month’s active manager holding survey. LITE, SWKS have most short interest; NVDA, AVGO least Of covered companies, LITE has the most short interest/float at 16%(+82bps MoM, -55bps QoQ), followed by SWKS (14%, +3bps MoM, +469bps QoQ) and ACLS (12%, +1bpMoM, -90bps QoQ). On a YoY basis, SWKS (+493bps), QCOM (+221bps QoQ), MTSI(+136bps) have seen the greatest increases in short interest while LSCC (-316bps),ALGM (-285bps), and ACLS (-251bps) have seen the greatest decreases in short interest.NVDA and AVGO continue to see the lowest short interest in semis (~1% each, roughlyflat MoM), followed by AMAT (2%, +3bps MoM) and AMBQ (2%, +104bps MoM). LOs preferSWKS, QCOM, NXPI, AVGO, TXN rel. to HFs InMarch, SWKS, MPWR, QCOM, NXPI, KLAC, and AVGO saw higher relative netweighting in LOs vs. HFs. TER, LRCX, and ON were more overweighted at HFs whileAMAT and SNPS were overweight at both LOs and HFs. Semiconductor ownership analysis Within semis, NVDA was the most-owned stock among active fund managers, withownership of 78% in Feb’26 (up from 73% in the Mar’25 report), followed by AVGO,AMD, and LRCX (34% - 75% ownership). Skyworks remained the least-owned semistocks with 3% ownership across all active manager funds in our survey. KLAC was the most overweight stock in semis (1.81x), followed by SNPS (1.63x). SWKS(0.05x) was the most underweight stock across semis. QRVO is no longer part ofS&P500. On a rolling-backward basis (three-month average), we highlight positive sentiment(expanding ownership and rising weightage on rolling QoQ basis) across select names:NVDA, AMD, AMAT, LRCX, and INTC. More cautious sentiment (both declining ownershipand weightage QoQ) exists at TXN, ADI, SNPS, CDNS, NXPI, MCHP, and ON. Notably, Intel at 12.4% ownership remains below $50bn+ market-cap-peers ranging 23%- 78% ownership. Separately, we also note stocks with >1% dividend yields have a 0.59xrelative weighting versus 1.10x average for stock <1% dividend yields. INTC holds ownership levelswellbelow peers of similar size Furthermore, assessing semis ownership/weighting relative to all infotech peers: (1)NVDA, AVGO, SNPS, KLAC, CDNS, TXN, MU, and AMAT are relatively well-owned andoverweight; (2) INTC, TER, ON, MCHP, NXPI, SWKS, and QRVO are both under-ownedand underweight; (3) QCOM, AMD, ADI and LRCX, are well-owned but underweight; (4)MPWR is relatively overweight but under-owned. We also put NVDA’s ownership in context. Despite being held by 78% of funds in thesurvey (~360bps higher than the next semis company, AVGO), breadth of ownershipremains modest compared to high market cap infotech/comms peers. Indeed, NVDA’s1.16x relative weighting is only slightly a