2025年APEC国家能源供需展望报告（第九版）-第二卷

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook9thEdition Volume 2 APEC Energy Working Group Produced byAsia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)Inui Building, Kachidoki 11F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki,Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054, JAPANTel: + 81 (3) 5144 8551Fax: + 81 (3) 5144 8555E-mail: master@aperc.or.jpAPERC Website: https://aperc.or.jp For Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Secretariat35 Heng Mui Keng TerraceSingapore 119616Tel: (65) 68919 600Fax: (65) 68919 690Email: info@apec.orgWebsite: www.apec.org © 2025 APEC Secretariat APEC#225-RE-01.13 Foreword The firstAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlookwas published in 1998, when the AsiaPacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) was just two years old. Since then, theOutlookhas continued to evolve, providing projections and analysis through periods of unprece-dented growth and numerous changes in the energy sector across the Asia-Pacific EconomicCooperation (APEC) region. Reflecting the shifting global energy landscape, this edition of the Outlook sharpened itsfocus on three key energy issues: 1) The costs associated with decarbonisation of the powerand hydrogen sectors of each APEC economy; 2) The effects of increased variable renewableenergy (VRE) sources, such as solar and wind, on electric grid reliability; and 3) The increasedelectricity requirements of data centres, including artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. Wehope these enhanced analyses provide stakeholders with useful insights into critical issuesthat will shape the future of energy in the APEC region. Today, the global energy system is undergoing profound changes as individual economiesaddress the energy trilemma and strive to balance energy security, affordability, and sustain-ability. TheAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 9thEditionunderscores the fact thatenergy policy decisions made by APEC economies will have far-reaching implications for theindividual economies, the APEC region, and the world. For its base year, theOutlookutilises data submitted by APEC economies to APEC’s ExpertGroup on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA). This 9thEdition of theOutlookis the result of three years of planning, rigorous analysis, andcollaboration by the APERC research team, under the leadership of Senior Vice PresidentGlen E. Sweetnam. It also reflects the valuable contributions of experts across APEC’s 21member economies and beyond. The primary aim of theOutlookis to support APEC economies in achieving their individualand collective energy goals. It also serves as a valuable reference for those seeking to betterunderstand recent and prospective energy developments within the APEC region. It is my pleasure to present this edition of theAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook. This edition is comprised of two volumes:Volume 1highlights key trends and insights forthe APEC region as a whole.Volume 2presents detailed energy outlooks for each of the21 APEC economies. The analysis is anchored in two scenarios designed to explore theopportunities and challenges across the diverse energy systems of the APEC member econ-omies. TheReference Scenario (REF)offers a projection based on historical trends andAPERC’s assumptions about the continuation of those trends in each APEC economy, whileacknowledging technical constraints. The REF Scenario provides baseline results to comparewith theTarget Scenario (TGT)projections, which explore a hypothetical pathway whereeach economy achieves energy-related policy targets, assuming implementation regardlessof cost-effectiveness. Dr. Kazutomo IRIEChairman & President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) Acknowledgements The development of theAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 9thEdition, would not have been possible without the valuable contributions of numerous individuals and organisationsacross APEC’s 21 member economies and beyond. We extend our sincere gratitude to all those whose support made this edition possible, particularly the participants of the APERC AnnualConference and the individuals and organisations acknowledged below. We would also like to express our gratitude to members of the APEC Secretariat, the APEC Energy Working Group (EWG), the APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA), theAPERC Advisory Board, along with numerous government officials, for their valuable insights and feedback throughout preparation of this report. Please note that theOutlookis an independent study conducted by APERC and does not necessarily reflect the views of APEC member economies. OUTLOOK COORDINATOR Glen Sweetnam Sub-coordinators Jungyoon Kim · Yasmin Fouladi · Finbar Maunsell · Mathew Horne VOLUME 1 AUTHORS Leads:Yasmin Fouladi · Glen SweetnamKey Takeaways: EmissionsNabih MatussinEnergy Import DependenceThanan Marukatat · Hyuga KasaiGrid ReliabilityAlexander IzhbuldinCostDaniel BurlutskyDemographic and Macroeconomic Assumptions:Finbar MaunsellEnergy Demand: TotalSamuel Matthew G. DumlaoAgricultureNabih MatussinBuildingsLeanne SargentIndustryHyuga KasaiT