亚太经合组织能源供需展望2025年第九版

Volume 1 APEC Energy Demand andSupply Outlook 9thEdition Volume 1 APEC Energy Working Group November 2025 Produced by Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)Inui Building, Kachidoki 11F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki,Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054, JAPANTel: + 81 (3) 5144 8551Fax: + 81 (3) 5144 8555E-mail: master@aperc.or.jpAPERC Website: https://aperc.or.jp For Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Secretariat 35 Heng Mui Keng TerraceSingapore 119616Tel: (65) 68919 600Fax: (65) 68919 690Email: info@apec.orgWebsite: www.apec.org © 2025 APEC Secretariat APEC#225-RE-04.12 Foreword The firstAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlookwas published in 1998, when the Asia Pacific EnergyResearch Centre (APERC) was just two years old. Since then, theOutlookhas continued to evolve, providingprojections and analysis through periods of unprecedented growth and numerous changes in the energysector across the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region. Today, the global energy system is undergoing profound changes as individual economies address theenergy trilemma and strive to balance energy security, affordability, and sustainability. TheAPEC EnergyDemand and Supply Outlook, 9thEditionunderscores the fact that energy policy decisions made by APECeconomies will have far-reaching implications for the individual economies, the APEC region, and theworld. The primary aim of theOutlookis to support APEC economies in achieving their individual and collectiveenergy goals. It also serves as a valuable reference for those seeking to better understand recent andprospective energy developments within the APEC region. This edition is comprised of two volumes:Volume 1highlights key trends and insights for the APEC regionas a whole.Volume 2presents detailed energy outlooks for each of the 21 APEC economies. The analysis isanchored in two scenarios designed to explore the opportunities and challenges across the diverse energysystems of the APEC member economies. TheReference Scenario (REF)offers a projection based onhistorical trends and APERC’s assumptions about the continuation of those trends in each APEC economy,while acknowledging technical constraints. The REF Scenario provides baseline results to compare with theTarget Scenario (TGT)projections, which explore a hypothetical pathway where each economy achievesenergy-related policy targets, assuming implementation regardless of cost-effectiveness. Reflecting the shifting global energy landscape, this edition of theOutlooksharpened its focus on threekey energy issues: 1) The costs associated with decarbonisation of the power and hydrogen sectors of eachAPEC economy; 2) The effects of increased variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as solar andwind, on electric grid reliability; and 3) The increased electricity requirements of data centres, includingartificial intelligence (AI) workloads. We hope these enhanced analyses provide stakeholders with usefulinsights into critical issues that will shape the future of energy in the APEC region. For its base year, theOutlookutilises data submitted by APEC economies to APEC’s Expert Group onEnergy Data and Analysis (EGEDA). This 9thEdition of theOutlookis the result of three years of planning, rigorous analysis, and collaborationby the APERC research team, under the leadership of Senior Vice President Glen E. Sweetnam. It alsoreflects the valuable contributions of experts across APEC’s 21 member economies and beyond. It is my pleasure to present this edition of theAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook. Dr. Kazutomo IRIE Chairman & President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) Acknowledgements The development of theAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 9thEdition,would not have beenpossible without the valuable contributions of numerous individuals and organisations across APEC’s 21member economies and beyond. We extend our sincere gratitude to all those whose support made thisedition possible, particularly the participants of the APERC Annual Conference and the individuals andorganisations acknowledged below. We would like to express our deep appreciation to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japanfor its generous sponsorship and financial support of this project. We would also like to express our gratitude to members of the APEC Secretariat, the APEC Energy WorkingGroup (EWG), the APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA), the APERC Advisory Board,along with numerous government officials, for their valuable insights and feedback throughout prepara-tion of this report. Please note that theOutlookis an independent study conducted by APERC and does not necessarilyreflect the views of APEC member economies. OUTLOOK COORDINATOR Glen Sweetnam Sub-coordinators Jungyoon Kim · Yasmin Fouladi · Finbar Maunsell · Mathew Horne VOLUME 1 AUTHORS Leads:Yasmin Fouladi · Glen Sweetnam Key Takeaways: EmissionsNabih MatussinEnergy Import DependenceThanan Marukatat · Hyuga KasaiGrid ReliabilityAlexander