重申买入评级及132美元目标价：迪士尼第二财季业绩超预期并重申2026财年指引

The Walt DisneyCompanyReutersBloomberg United States DIS.N DIS US Media & Entertainment Strong F2Q Results; Oil Prices Not ImpactingParks At This Point ResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-0117 We reiterate our Buy rating and $132 PT following Disney's stronger-than-expected F2Q results and reiteration of FY2026 guidance. Importantly, Disney isnot seeing incremental headwinds in its Experiences segment dueto higherfuelprices and resulting changes in travel behaviour/consumer budgets,which hasbeenourmain concern regarding the company'sfundamental outlook in2H26and early F2027. Of course, this could change if higher oil prices persist, but, asmacroeconomic risktoExperienceshasbeenlargelypricedin,withthestocktrading in the high $90s to low $100s range.Management's outlook, which issupported by forward bookings and QTD trends in F3Q,is for improving domesticattendance in F3Q.Furthermore, Experiences will see the first full quarter of thecruise ship The Disney Adventure in operation and The World of Frozen beingopen in Paris. Notably, ESPN Unlimited is up to about 3-4M subscribers based onDisney's disclosure that subscriber declines contributed about 3oo bps to thedeclineinSportsAffiliate&Subscriptionrevenue,vsa-400bpsimpact inF1Q26. Research Associate+1-212-250-4386 Research Analyst+1-212-250-3716 Research Associate+1-212-250-0118 In his first earnings call as CEO, Josh D'Amaro made it clear the company willcontinuetoexecuteupon its existingframeworkcenteredaround investing instorytelling, strengthening the streaming business, building ESPN DTC, andinvesting in and delivering on growth in Experiences; all while establishing asharper focus on leveraging technology to create a more unified consumerexperience.Disney's stock is trading at 16x2026EAdj.EPS,whereas our12-month price target implies 18x 2027E Adj.EPS. Results&Guidance:Disney reported revenue and Ol that solidly exceeded ourestimates across all three of its operating segments, in addition to beating ourAdj. EPS estimate by $0.15. Management refined the Adj EPS guidance to 12%growth ex-53rd week and 16% in-53rd week, vs double-digit ex-53rd weekpreviously.Disney's2026sharerepurchaseguidancewasraisedto$8B+,vs$7Bpreviously. Sports segment Ol guidance (MSD growth ex-53rd week) was updatedmanagement guided to a -14% change in Sports Ol, driven primarily by higherNBA rights costs; and Total Segment Ol of $5.3B. EstimateRevisions:OurFY2026consolidatedrevenueandsegmentOlestimatesincreased by 0.2% and1.9%, respectively:while ourAdj EPS estimate increased lion's share of the increase at +$278M, while Sports increased by $147M (due tothe NFL Network acquisition), and Entertainment decreased by $56M.Themeparks demonstrated resilienceto macroeconomic risks.While domestic attendance was down 1%duetotough comps and continued softerinternationalvisitation,we expecttrends will improve in2Hastheparkslapthe opening of EpicUniverse and Liberation Day.2H is also set to benefit from the launch of Disney'snewest cruise ship,TheDisneyAdventure,on March10and the opening of Theuncertainty, but also noted that the segment hasn't seen an impact from higheroil prices to date. As such, we believe management is perhaps being conservativein its Experiences Ol guide of HSD growth for the year, although we think this isaprudentapproach giventhe environment. invest in both product and content in order to grow both engagement andmonetization. Entertainment SVOD margins hit double digits (10.6%) for the firsttime in 2Q and management reaffirmed its full-year margin guidance of at least10%.Margin improvementwasdrivenbySv0Drevenuegrowthof13%relativeto expense growth of 8%,with top line strength being driven by an unquantifiedcombination of rate (ie price increases) and subscriber growth (including recentlyaddedwholesale bundles outside the US, such as Sky).Disney continuesto investin improving its streaming services, including integrating Disney+ and Hulu (weexpectthis will be completed by the end of this year),improving personalization,introducing vertical content, and more.To the extent that some of the productenhancement initiatives are one-time in nature, this represents further room formargin improvement on a go-forward basis.Disney also continues to invest incontentfortheplatform,particularlyinlocal/regionalinternationalcontent,wherethere is still a much larger opportunity for subscriber growth relative to the US,albeit one that is harder to capture. The 2H theatrical slate is off to a strong start, with The Devil Wears Prada 2performing above expectations in international markets. The slate for theremainder of the year should deliver strong box office results; highlighted bymajorfranchise films inTheMandalorian&Grogu,ToyStory5,Moana(liveaction),andSpider-Man:BrandNewDay. Walt Disney co. Appendix 1 exchanges via Reuters,Bloombergand othervendors.Otherinformation is sourced fromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources. 1 - Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its aff