黄金市场评论：暂时性的回归

Risk on Highlights Gold closed at US$4,611/oz, flat for the month of April. Across most majorcurrencies, gold lost a little ground on a weaker US dollar (Table1). Aprilreview Gold ended April flat, weigheddown by a return of risk appetite.But a weaker US dollar and ETF OurGold Return Attribution Model (GRAM)suggests that a sizeable drop inmarket volatility – as risk appetite returned – was a major negative contributor.But this was countered by strong ETF inflows, a moderately weaker US dollar April saw strong inflows intoglobal gold ETFs. Surprisingly, these were led byEurope, likely due to concerns from European investors that the region wouldbe harder hit by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Asia and the US contributed about Looking forward Short-term headwinds couldsustain some gold weakness as itsearches for a catalyst to regain COMEX managed money net long positions saw a very modest increase in Aprilto US$1bn (5t), but remain firmly in neutral territory. Near-term pressure Our take on the negative factors: The return of transitory •Gold is technically vulnerable, but the long-term uptrendis not yet broken. March’s decline held key support nearthe 200-day average and US$4,075/oz retracement level,but the rebound has stalled below the 55-day average. A Markets appear to be treating the Middle East crisis andHormuz shutdown as transitory, a word that carries baggage The shock has been large, but markets are not extrapolatingit into a meaningful shift in inflation or growth…yet. US near-term inflation breakeven rates (two-year) spiked asthe crisis intensified, but have since retraced much of thatrise. US equities have rallied strongly on a return of risk •US markets are treating the shock as containable. Equityand bond volatility premia have eased (Chart2) – Last month, we highlighted several reasons why goldstruggled as the crisis unfolded: prior strong performance, •The Fed backdrop has become less gold-friendly, withpolicy rate futures pricing higher-for-longer (Chart3) •US equities have a much larger expected earnings The crisis remains unresolved, but markets – led by the US -have become sanguine. The US remains relatively sheltered •Central bank demand remains structurally solid, but thecrisis has reminded investors that gold can also bemobilised for liquidity in stress. Concerns about further This presents a quandary for investors: a major geopoliticalcrisis is unfolding, but the triggers to tactically shift into goldseem absent. There is a tug-of-war between short-term Taken together, the near-term setup is not especiallyfriendly. Gold is technically vulnerable, rate-cut expectationshave moved out, and markets are treating the shock as disorderly pricing of global oil and severe demanddestruction •Gold futures marketpositioning remains neutral, with •A disorderly unwind of impactful leveraged Treasury basis Calm before the storm But the calm could prove fragile. If the shock is lesstemporary than markets assume, gold could regain support •On a global level, stagflation risks are edging up even ifmarkets have faded the immediate inflation scare (Chart4). Brent and WTI are pricing December contracts at a 22- •J.P Morgan estimates that the operational floor for globaloil inventories could be reached by September, should the And the more structural support factors should come back •Central bank buying continues, as per our most recentGold Demand Trendsreport•Rates are likely to fall eventually, even if cuts lag thegrowth slowdown In summary… Markets appear to be treating the Middle East crisis astransitory, which is weighing on gold. Technical momentumlooks more vulnerable, rate-cut expectations have movedout the curve and US-led risk appetite has recovered. But thecrisis has also reinforced many of the structural reasons World Gold Council Research We are a membership organisation that champions the rolegold plays as a strategic asset, shaping the future of aresponsible and accessible gold supply chain. Our team of Jeremy De Pessemier, CFAAsset Allocation Strategist Johan PalmbergSenior Quantitative Analyst Kavita ChackoResearch Head, India Krishan GopaulSenior Analyst, EMEALouise StreetSenior Markets Analyst We drive industry progress, shaping policy and setting the Lead Author Marissa SalimSenior Research Lead, APAC Ray JiaResearch Head,APAC ex-India & Johan PalmbergSenior Quantitative Analyst Taylor BurnetteResearch Lead, Americas JuanCarlos ArtigasRegional CEO, Americas and Market Strategy John Reade Senior Market Strategist,Europe and Asia Joseph CavatoniSenior MarketStrategist, Further information: Data sets and methodology visit:www.gold.org/goldhub Contact:research@gold.org Important information and disclosures © 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consen