职业流动与绿色转型：南亚技能投资需求的程式化估算

Occupational Mobility and Green Transition A Stylized Estimation of Skill Investment Needs in South Asia Andrés HamEmmanuel VazquezMonica Yanez-PagansCamilla KnudsenSaher Asad Education and Skills Global DepartmentMay 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11373 Abstract This paper estimates the share of green employment in sevenSouth Asian countries using an O*NET-based definitionand finds that, on average, 24 percent of jobs in the regionare currently green. The paper then assesses the potentialfor non-green workers to transition into green occupations.Among all non-green workers, 57 percent could transitionto green jobs with limited reskilling, 16 percent with mod-erate upskilling, and 27 percent with full skills reconversion. These results suggest three policy priorities—promotingon-the-job training, strengthening firm-based and public–private training systems, and adopting a dual strategy thatinvests in reskilling and upskilling today’s workforce whilesimultaneouslyadvancing forward-looking educationreforms that equip future cohorts for new and emerginggreen occupations. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Occupational Mobility and Green Transition:A Stylized Estimation of Skill Investment Needsin South Asia* Andrés Ham1Emmanuel Vazquez2Monica Yanez-Pagans3Camilla Knudsen4Saher Asad5 Keywords: climate change, labor markets, green transitions, green skills, green jobs, occupationalmobility, skills development needs. JEL Classification: J21, J24, J62, O57, Q01, Q58. 1.Introduction Labormarkets are undergoing profound changes driven by technological, economic,anddemographic factors, with climate action also contributing to these shifts (Garrote-Sanchez andYanez-Pagans, 2024). As the green transition accelerates, it is reshaping skill needs—creatingdemand for workers with “green” skills. These green skills refer to knowledge, abilities, values,and attitudes that support and promote sustainable development. However, most countries are notcurrently equipped to support the green transition in terms of skills development needs.Understanding skill requirements is, therefore, critical for informing how to strengthen educationand training systems so that green transitions are feasible, efficient, and equitable (e.g., Sanchez-Reaza et al 2023, OECD 2023, and Fuchs 2024). The term green transition broadly refers to the shift from an economy dependent on fossilfuelsand resource-intensive industries to one that is more sustainable,low-carbon,andenvironmentally friendly. Several countries in South Asia, including India and Bangladesh, havecommitted to reducing emissions or achieving net-zero targets in the coming decades. Achievingthese goals will require significant changes in their labor markets, with the demand for green skillsexpected to rise sharply while the need for skills used exclusively in carbon-intensive jobs isanticipated to decline—and, in some cases, disappear. To better understand how green skills are reflected in employment, several studies haveestimated the size of the green workforce and characterized workers in green occupations.6Existing measurement approaches help describe green employment and provide insight into the potential labor market consequences of green transitions. Most studies discuss and estimate thedistributive consequences of green transitions (see Carley and Konisky, 2020; García-Garcíaetal., 2020; Vona, 2023; Cavalloet al., 2024). Yet, beyond distributional impacts, it is equallyimportant to investigate the magnitude and type of skill investments required to enable a successfultransition. Determining these needs is an important contribution to designing policies that supportworkers and firms during this transformation. A central question is the scale of retraining required to enable transitions into greenoccupations. Some workers may require minimal training, as their existing skills can be easilyupgraded to meet the demands of a green job and could be easily acquired on the job. Others,particularly those in carbon-intensive industries, may require significant upskilling or evencomplete retraining to transition into the green economy. This distinction—between reskilling,upskilling, and reconversion—is cent