2035年人工智能与教育系统：14大趋势与5大未来情景

Fourteen trends and fivescenarios for how thefuture might unfold About International Development Research Centre(IDRC) Recommended citation Rahman, A., & Freeman, A. (2025).ArtificialIntelligence and Education Systems in 2035:Fourteen trends and five scenarios for how the futuremight unfold[Technical Report]. EdTech Hub.https://doi.org/10.53832/edtechhub.1125. Available athttps://docs.edtechhub.org/lib/HF6HI7XM. Availableunder Creative Commons Attribution 4.0International. IDRC is part of Canada’s foreign affairs and developmentefforts. It champions and funds research and innovationwithin and alongside developing regions to drive globalchange. We invest in high-quality research in developingcountries, share knowledge with researchers andpolicymakers for greater uptake and use, and mobilize ourglobal alliances to build a more sustainable and inclusiveworld. Acknowledgements This study was commissioned by IDRC under theEmpowerED programme. Many thanks to FlorencioCeballos and Matilda Catherine Dipieri for their input.We are also grateful to Taskeen Adam, MollyJamieson Eberhardt, Daniel Plaut, Gita Luz, and AliceCarter for their input. About EdTech Hub EdTech Hub is a global research partnership. Our goal is toempower people by giving them the evidence they needto make decisions about technology in education. Ourevidence library is a repository of our latest research,findings, and wider literature on EdTech. As a globalpartnership, we seek to make our evidence available andaccessible to those who are looking for EdTech solutionsworldwide. Lastly, this study would not have been possiblewithout the contribution of the experts weinterviewed, and who took part in two strategicforesight workshops. If you have any questions, please contacthello@edtechhub.org. What’s in this deck An introduction to this strategic foresight study Approach & thinking behind the work What we’re seeing: from clear signals to earlysigns: ■Seven more certain trends■Seven less certain trends Five scenarios for education systems in 2035 AN INTRODUCTION TO THISSTRATEGIC FORESIGHT STUDY Join us in imagining educationten years from now An introduction to this strategic foresight study The next ten years will see big challenges for educationsystems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). To understand how LMIC governments can effectivelybuild capacity, we need to better understand the shiftsthat might take place in education systems. In particular, IDRC and EdTech Hub believe that twodrivers of change will fundamentally shift nationaleducation systems: developments in artificial intelligence(AI), and the increase in conflict and crises around theworld. That’s the purpose of this strategic foresight study. Ourgoal is to explore possible futures for LMIC educationsystems. This exploration will go on to share a programmeof research into how governments in LMIC contexts mightadapt and build capacity, in light of such futures. To support governments and education stakeholders, wehave embarked on a multi-year programme of work,aimed at answering the following research questions: This document is Part 1 of our strategic foresight study:Artificial Intelligence and Education Systems in 2035:Fourteen trends and five scenarios for how the futuremight unfold. What will be the key challenges facing nationaleducation systems over the next ten years, with aspecific focus on artificial intelligence and education inconflict and crisis settings… Part 2 of our study, which includes twelve trends and fivescenarios for the impact of increased conflict and crisis oneducation systems, is available here. … and how can governments in low- andmiddle-income countries (LMICs) build capacity tosuccessfully overcome those challenges? An introduction to trends The first step in the strategic foresight study was toidentify trends. A trend is “a general tendency or directionof development or change over time” (⇡Save the ChildrenUK & School of International Futures, 2019). Our methodology for identifying trends EdTech Hub identified trends through two key methods: Developing a database of signals:Signals of change are“concrete, specific events, stories, innovations, or news”that may radically transform our future. Given the rapid,recent developments in AI at the time of writing, scanningand capturing such signals for AI in education systemsprovided the best indicators of potential change. Adatabase of 60 signals was developed. This document begins by capturing 14 trends in AI thatmight affect the development of education systems overtime. Each trend is illustrated by signals and/or insightsfrom expert interviews. After identifying trends, we combined them to sketchconcrete, tangible scenarios for education systems in 2035,given development in AI. One-to-one expert interviews:To complement thedatabase of signals, EdTech Hub undertooksemi-structured interviews with 13 key stakeholders,including funders, government officials, and EdTechstart