主题投资与大趋势：中国超大规模企业在云需求增长背景下加速人工智能基础设施建设

Semiconductors Thematic investing and megatrends: China’shyperscalersaccelerate AI infra. buildout amidstrengthening cloud demand China’s major hyperscalers (Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu,allcovered by ourinternet team) are intensifying their investments in AIinfrastructure, with capexdoubling YoY in 1Q25.While their combined spending still trails overseashyperscalers, the sharp increase indicates a clear strategic focus on scalingcompute capacity to support LLM training and inference. Despite near-termheadwinds from exportrestrictionsfrom the USon AIGPUs, these domesticplayers remain committed to long-term AI growth. Inparticular, early signs ofreturns are emerging, with all three reporting solid cloud revenue growthdrivenby rising enterprise adoption of AI services. Looking forward, we expectthisinvesting momentum to continue throughout therest of 2025E, benefitting localplayers onAIsupply chain,suchas Innolight (300308CH,BUY, TP:RMB151),ShengyiTech(600183CH,BUY,TP:RMB34.5),andSCC(002916 CH, BUY, TP: RMB146.8). China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852)39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Robustcapex across the board from China’s hyperscalers.Alibaba,Tencent, and Baidu collectively invested ~RMB55bn (US$7.5bn) incapexduring the quarter, 2xYoY,despitea fraction of the US$73bnwasdeployedbyoverseashyperscalers (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google) over thesame period. Alibaba’scapex rose 120% YoY to RMB24.6bn but declined22.5% QoQ, likelydue totheUSrestriction on Nvidia’s H20 GPU exports.This fell short of its earlierRMB380bncapexroadmap for 2024-26Eexpectations (translating to~130bn in FY25E). Tencent’scapex jumped91.4% YoY to RMB27.5bn, with a similar sequential slowdown, also likelytied to component constraints. Baidu saw steadier growth, withcapex rising42.3% YoY and 24.1% QoQ to RMB2.9bn, as it continues to scaleupits AIcloud and model R&D capabilities. Related reports:1.Semiconductors -Thematicinvestingandmegatrends:Resilient1Q25capexamonghyperscalers(link)2.Semiconductors-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends:Alibaba’s bold capex hike a boosttodomesticAIinfrastructuresuppliers(link)3.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: Viewson DeepSeek(link)4.Semiconductors-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends:Stargatepoisedtoaccelerateglobal AI arms race(link)5.Semiconductors-TSMC: SurgingAIdemandspropelledstrongresults and guidance(link)6.Semiconductors-Nvidia’s3Qearningstakeaway:StrongdemandforBlackwellwellintonext year(link)7.Semiconductors-AMD“Advancing AI” event(link)8.Semiconductors-Sector valuationrevisit after recent rally;Potentialrerating opportunities ahead(link)9.Semiconductors-Nvidia2Qreview:Astrongbeat-and-raisequarter;eyesonBlackwellshipment and margin(link)10.Semiconductors-PCBsector:1H24 earnings preview(link)11.Semi-Solidearnings;HBMtodrive future growth(link)12.Semi-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends: AIexposure update(link)13.Semi-Marvell FY1Q25 earnings:Harnessing the AI revenue(link)14.Nvidia: To keep growing for longer(link)15.Semi-Global SME investment settoaccelerateontechadvancements, China localization;Initiate Naura w/ BUY(link) Accelerating cloud revenue growth underscores early returns on AI-focused capex.In1Q25, AliCloud, Tencent Cloud, and Baidu AI CloudpostedrobustYoYrevenuegrowthof17.7%,low-teens,and42%,respectively, reflecting strong enterprise demand for AI model training andinference. These gains suggest that recent heavy capex outlays targetingGPU clusters,inference hardware,and scalable AIinfrastructure arebeginning to translate into commercial traction. Constructive outlook for domestic AI capex going forward.A keycatalyst will beNvidia’supcoming rollout of its Blackwell-architecture AIGPUs, specifically tailored to comply withtheUS export restrictions for theChinese marketfollowing the H20 ban.The chip(cost US$6.5-8k vs. 10-12k for H20)usesaconventional memory (GDDR7) and omits advancedTSMC packaging,per Reuters.Despite weaker specs, it helps Nvidiaretaina foothold inthe Chinesemarket.Aside from overseas suppliers,we arealsopositiveondomesticAIsupplychainplayers.WenoticethatCambricon(688256 CH, NR)hasincreasedits inventories from RMB1.8bnin 4Q24 to RMB2.8bn in 1Q25likelyforpreparinga broader rollout of itsdomestic AI GPU solutions amid growing geopolitical risks.We believethatthe robust AI capex from Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance will drivea structural growth cycle for domestic AI infra. supply chainwithincreasedneed of supply chain domestication and more cost-effective solutions. Source: Company data,Bloomberg Source: Company data,Bloomberg,CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationTheresearch analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect hisor her