PATH：全球城市客运排放路径模型（英）2026

PATHA Model of Passenger Transport EmissionsPathways for Cities Across the Globe Nino Pkhikidze, He He © 2026 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed inthis work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies inthe information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and otherinformation shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citationof works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by thoseauthors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes aslong as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Nino Pkhikidze, He He “World Bank. 2026. PATH:AModel of Passenger Transport Emissions Pathways for Cities Across the Globe. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;email:pubrights@worldbank.org. Table of Contents Acknowledgments...........................................................................................................................................xForeword...........................................................................................................................................................xiAbbreviations..................................................................................................................................................xiiExecutive Summary......................................................................................................................................xiv1.Introduction..............................................................................................................................................12.The Model: Passenger Transport Emissions Pathways (PATH)......................................................52.1Model Structure......................................................................................................................................72.2Data Overview.........................................................................................................................................82.3Model Specifications and Parameters.............................................................................................133.Insights from the Model.......................................................................................................................193.1Application 1: The Current Global Trajectory................................................................................203.2Application 2: Intervention Effectiveness—ContextMatters...................................................284.Interactive Web Tool for City-Level Analysis...................................................................................375.Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................45Appendix A. Technical Report and Documentation.................................................................................48Model Structure..............................................................................................................................................49Data...................................................................................................................................................................50Model Specifications......................................................................................................................................67Estimation Results..........................................................................................................................................73Benchmarking.................................................................................................................................