燃煤电厂退役与再利用优化模型（英）2026

Technical Report (including the GAMS Source Code) World Bank Energy and Extractives Practice February 2026 ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................................................3INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................................4Overview of the Relevant Literature...................................................................................................5What Does the Model Do?..................................................................................................................7COAL RETIREMENT AND REPURPOSE MODEL (CRRM): MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION................9Overview of the Model........................................................................................................................9Objective function: Maximum net revenue (undiscounted value):.....................................................12Constraints........................................................................................................................................13Potential Extensions to the Model.....................................................................................................17AN ILLUSTRATIVE CASE STUDY..........................................................................................................19Inputs and Assumptions....................................................................................................................19Discussion of Model Results..............................................................................................................21Role of Frequency control ancillary services constraints................................................................22Lowering the cost of pv to $500/kW..............................................................................................23APPLICATION FOR ESKOM COAL FLEET............................................................................................25Context.............................................................................................................................................25Overview of the Methodology...........................................................................................................26Inputs and Assumptions....................................................................................................................27Annual CO2emissions Limits.........................................................................................................27Key Generator Data.......................................................................................................................27Other Assumptions.......................................................................................................................28Key Results for ESKOM Coal Fleet....................................................................................................30Base Case: Fixed Capacity Plan.....................................................................................................31Alternative Scenario: Optimized Retirement and Dispatch Scenario.............................................33Concluding Remarks.........................................................................................................................35REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................37APPENDIX: MODEL SOURCE CODE IN GAMS....................................................................................40 ABSTRACT Retirement and repurposing of coal-based generation plants is a critical part of the energytransition.This is the core part of programs like Accelerating Coal Transition (ACT) that is beingimplemented in several countries around the world. While there are established planning modelsthatcomprehensively capturebothcapacity entry and exit decisions at a system level (i.e., for allgeneration types to meet systemwide demand),there are certain nuances when it comes to coalretirement.Sites of incumbent coal plants can be repurposedto switch fuel (e.g., biomass),put uprenewable and energy storage facilitiesdepending on the land area available and system needs.There are social dimensions includingkeeping part of the workforce in such repurposed plants.There are other issues around strandedasset value of coal plants that still have productive life left,availability of financingandallocation of concessional finance for retirement and repurposingactivities.There is currentlyno model/tool that can capture these issues to makebalanceddecisions on retirement and repurposing of coal generating units. Theretirement and repurposingdecisions are typically being made based on technical criteria such as age and efficiencyat a projectlevel. The proposed modeling fram