碳边界政策对排放、全球价值链和福利的影响建模（英）

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKTheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent.ADB Economics Working Paper SeriesModeling the Impact of Carbon Border Policies on Emissions,Global Value Chains, and WelfareJoseph Francois and Neil Foster-McGregorNo. 792 | July 2025 Joseph Francois (joseph.francois@unibe.ch) is aprofessor of economics at the University of Bernand a fellow at the Centre for Economic PolicyResearch, London. Neil Foster-McGregor(nfostermcgregor@adb.org) is a principal economistat the Economic Research and Development ImpactDepartment, Asian Development Bank. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)© 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444Some rights reserved. Published in 2025.ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250274-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250274-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to useCorrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China. www.adb.orgthe ADB logo.Note: ABSTRACTThis paper employs a computational general equilibrium model to examine the potential impactof the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The paper considersthe impact of extending CBAM to other economies, examining whether approaches that requireincreased coordination of carbon pricing over a greater number of jurisdictions can increase theimpact of CBAM. Results suggest that while an expanded scheme of carbon prices and bordercarbon taxes can reduce emissions, underlying global economic growth trends are more thanenough to quickly undo the highest emissions reductions modelled here. As such, sustainedtechnical innovation and major changes in the underlying structure of energy systems will berequired to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) targets. The results alsoreinforce another message of recent IPCC reports, namely that in some cases the potentialimpactsof mitigation actions through domestic and trade-related carbon taxes may fallKeywords:computable general equilibrium, carbon pricing, border carbon adjustmentsThis paper was a background paper for the Asian Development Bank’sAsian Economic Integration Report2024: Decarbonizing Global Value Chains.Early drafts of this paper were presented in the Asian EconomicIntegrationReport(AEIR)Theme Chapter Workshop(October 2023)and at the UK Trade PolicyObservatory, University of Sussex (March 2024). disproportionately on poorer regions.JEL codes:C68, Q56__________________________ 1.IntroductionCarbon pricing policies are a central feature of mechanisms designed to balance the societalcosts of carbon emissions against associated economic costs linked to emission reductions. Thedesign of such schemes can vary widely, reflecting the non-binding and bottom-up approach tonational commitments within the Paris Agreement. Given heterogeneity in both the design andthe effectiveness of carbon polices, the more ambitious Parties to the Paris Ag