eBay 1Q26：逆势增长，但增长峰值争议犹存

Nathan Gee+1 917 344 8573nathan.gee@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Ajeya Patil+1 917 344 8467ajeya.patil@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 95.00 USD EBAY EBAY 1Q26: Defying gravity, but peak growth debate lingers Another massive GMV print — 14% FxN growth, led by the US segment growing 27%. Thistop-line strength is incredible to see. However, even with a raise on the GMV outlook, the stockwill have to contend with concerns of peak growth. Within our eCommerce coverage, EBAY’stough comp dynamic is the toughest as we enter the back-half of 2026 and the lack of marginupside will also create some debate on mix and flow-through. To be fair, we think managementis doing the right thing by recycling GMV strength and pulling forward investment priorities,particularly given some of this momentum is temporary — but it makes for a tough near-termset-up as the EPS growth algorithm remains largely unchanged despite solid results. Strength to strength.GMV beat us by ~1ppt and the Q2 outlook of 8-10% FxN growth Y/Y offered some upside. To EBAY’s credit, the company saw broad-based strength acrosscategories and strategic efforts. Focus Category growth of 24%, and double-digit growthin C2C and Re-Commerce. Management also highlighted ‘balanced’ growth across Buyers,Sold Items, and ASP in the US business, which is important as we think about durability. Peak growth debate.Q2 guidance is an early signal of EBAY starting to ‘comp the comp’,but the challenge grows in 2H. We expect peak growth concerns to stick, and investorswill continue to question what ‘normal’ looks like as certain categories moderate (i.e.,Collectibles). For the year, we now model 8.5% FxN growth (8% organic with 50bps Depoptailwind), ahead of guidance of 7-7.5%. In the out-years, we nudge up in the 4-5% range. Finding a balance.EBIT growth was strong in 1Q26 (+18% Y/Y) but is expected tomoderate (6-10% for 2Q26). Management is reinvesting behind a variety of LT opportunities— focus categories, Live, Vehicles, AI functionality, and marketing. Our nitpick is transactionlosses, but this comes with shipping and payments, which are good for the marketplace. Investment Implications DETAILS EXHIBIT 4:Updated expected impact from Depop acquisition expected to close by the end of 3Q26. APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS EXHIBIT 15:Our eBay earnings model. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY eBay Inc We value eBay using a 50/50 combination of NTMP/E multiple of 17.5x Non-GAAP EPS and a DCF using a WACC of 10.0% and aterminal growth rate of 2%. Our Price Target of $95 is set on a fully diluted basis. We treat SBC as a cash expense for the purposesof DCF, and we also consider eBay’s equity stakes. eBay is a diversified eCommerce marketplace, and we benchmark valuation tocomparable peers across eCommerce, Internet, and eBay’s own history. RISKS eBay Inc Upside Risks •eBay’s Focus Category strategy and horizontal marketplace improvements drive continued acceleration in GMV growth.•eBay benefits from tariffs and trade-down as consumers look for local, value-oriented alternatives; GMV accelerates and thedemand sticks given improvements in the shopping experience across core categories.•Buyer growth continues, with enthusiast buyers starting to grow; eBay finds success with younger consumers, leveraging itsposition as a scaled re-commerce player and taking share from niche marketplaces.•GMV momentum drives operating leverage and margin upside; advertising revenue improves marketplace profitability.•Healthy FCF ramp as one-off factors normalize in 2026; management leans into capital return, consistently reducing sharecount. Downside Risks •eBay's market share erodes further on increased competition and/or eBay's inability to re-vitalize the marketplace with its focuscategory approach.•Pricing initiatives in the UK create a bigger margin headwind than anticipated and/or eBay rolls out similar changes in othermarkets that undercut future marg