1Q26 CIO调查：IT服务未进一步恶化，但背景喜忧参半；整体预算带来希望

IT Services| North America 1Q26 CIO Survey: IT ServicesNot Getting Worse, But MixedBackdrop; Hope In BroaderBudgets Disappointing lack of budget growth acceleration (core to ACNOW thesis): 1Q26 CIO survey data indicates CY26 budgetgrowth of 2.0% y/y (modestly below 2.1% CY25 growth) andmonitoring new weakness in Financials (~29% of CTSH FY25revenue). Slightly better overall budget outlook provides somehope.M IT Services North AmericaIndustry View Annual IT Services budget growth is still down vs. CY25, but no change vs. lastquarter’s CIO survey, while expected growth rates across the US and EU diverge.1Q26 CIO survey data indicate CY26 budget growth of +2.0% y/y, modestly belowCY25 growth of +2.1%, and consistent with the CY26 growth outlook from our 4Q25CIO survey (published January 14, 2026) ( Exhibit 3 ). Squinting, we are slightlyencouraged that our survey now indicates slightly faster overall IT Budget growth inCY26 at +3.7% (vs. last qtr., which forecasted slightly slower IT Budget growth of+3.4% in CY26 vs. +3.6% in CY25— see here for the broader US Tech note).Spending intentions diverge across US and EU respondents, as US respondentsexpect slight growth acceleration to +2.3% y/y (vs. 2.1% in CY25), while EUrespondents forecast slower growth of+0.9% y/y (vs. 2.0% in CY25) ( Exhibit 4 ).77% of respondents are based in the US and 23% of respondents are based in theEU. Additionally, 20% of the survey responses were collected after the start of theMiddle East conflict (02/28), but those responses showed no deterioration inoverall growth expectations. Retail and Financials industry verticals show the greatest QoQ downwardrevision to 2026 IT Services spending intentions.Retail and Financialsrespondents expect to temper their spending intentions on IT Services vs. lastquarter's expectations, with Retail decelerating spend by (120)bps to +1.6% y/y andFinancials decelerating by (130)bps to +0% y/y ( Exhibit 6 ). For context, Financialsmade up 18%/29%/24%/~44% of ACN, CTSH, EPAM and KDFY25 revenue,respectively. By contrast, Services (e.g., media, hospitality, etc.) respondents showeda 200bp QoQ acceleration in expected CY26 IT Services spend, to +5.5%. (vs. 3.5%in 4Q25). Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Willingness to engage a strategic consulting vendor on Gen AI decreases slightlyQoQ.1Q26 survey results show that +9% of respondents are utilizing a strategicconsulting vendor such as ACN for Gen AI / ML efforts (down from +11% in 4Q25).We continue to monitor the pace of Gen AI adoption across enterprise customers to For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. better understand the growth implications for IT Services ( Exhibit 9 ). As areminder, we believe Gen AI will impact US IT Services companies primarily through1) pricing pressure, with some contracts building in 20-30% AI-related costreductions upfront, 2) the need for increased IP investment that will likely pressureROIC, and 3) a shift toward outcome-based pricing models that transfer technologyand execution risks to service providers. See more here: US IT Services: UpgradingIndustry View to In-Line Given Expectations and Balanced Risk / Reward. Monitoring the defensiveness of IT Services-related priorities.We find itnoteworthy that Digital Transformation screened as the 5th most defensive techpriority (vs. 6th most defensive last quarter), especially with Digital Transformationamong CIOs' top 3 priorities in terms of projects with largest spend increases in2026 ( Exhibit 10 ). Conversely, strategic consulting remains the least defensivepriority, with a net score of -9%, which is a 2 ppt decline from last quarter (-7% in4Q25). We continue to monitor any signs of improvement across both of thesepriorities as macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain ( Exhibit 11 ). As a reminder,defensibility is measured by net score, which is calculated by subtracting the % ofrespondents most likely to spend vs. those least likely on each listed IT project. Relative to CY25, CY26 budget growth expectations reflect an accelerationacross in Technology and Services verticals and a deceleration in Energy,Healthcare and Financials verticals ( Exhibit 7 ). •Technology industry respondents expect IT Services spending to increase+2.4% in CY26 (vs. +1.4% in CY25).•Services industry respondents anticipate a stronger +5.5% growth in CY26(vs. +3.3% in CY25).•Energy respondents expect IT Services spend to increase +1% in CY26 (vs.+4% in CY25).•Healthcare respondents expect IT Services spend to increase +2.1% in CY26(vs. +3.3% in CY25).•Financials respondents expect IT Services spen