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Fuel Oil Market Report Weekly

2026-05-05 梁可方 国泰君安证券 李鑫
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GTJA Futures Research InstituteKefang Liang(Analyst)Advisor y Code:Z0019111Date:2026年5月5日 CONTENTS Import & Export Price & Spread Supply Demand Inventory Summary Refinery UtilizationGlobal Refinery MaintenanceProduction and Supply Chinese MarketWeekly Global Import andExport amount: HSFOWeekly Global Import andExport amount: LSFO Asian MarketEuropean MarketAmerican MarketOTC Swap MarketChinese Future MarketSpread in Physical marketGlobal Fuel Oil CrackGlobal Fuel Oil Swap’sTerm Structure Global Fuel Oil Inventory Global Fuel Oil Demand Summary Summary Sincelastweek,theU.S.-Irannegotiationshaveremaineddeadlocked.OnMay4,IranandtheU.S.engagedindirectmilitaryclashesagain.Itisexpectedthatthestalematebetweenthetwosideswillpersist,withnoexclusionoffurtherescalation.ThisimpliesthatspotsuppliesintheStraitofHormuzregionwillnotresumeatleastuntilMay,andglobalfueloilpriceswillriseoncemore.ThepremiumforspotdeliveriesscheduledforlateMaycontinuestoclimb,asthemarketshiftsitsfocustopricinginresponsetotherealityofsupplyshortages.Therearesomeminorshiftsinsupplyanddemandthatwarrantattention:First,Russiadeliveredasubstantialamountof Supply Refinery Utilization CDU Utilization of Chinese State-ownedRefineries CDU Utilization of Chinese IndependentRefineries CDU Utilization of Chinese Refineries 原油:常减压:产能利用率:中国炼厂(周) 原油:常减压:独立炼厂:产能利用率:中国(周) 原油:主营炼厂:产能利用率:中国(周) Global Refinery Maintenance Global Maintenance: CDU Production and Supply Demand Global Fuel Oil Demand Inventory Global Fuel Oil Inventory Fuel Inventory: Fujairah Price & Spread Asian Market 新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格 European Market NWE 0.5% 380CST FOB American Market USAC低硫直馏燃料油价格 OTC Swap Market Chinese Future Market Spread in Physical market Spread between HSFO and LSFO FOB price in Singapore——Hi-5 Spread Global Fuel Oil Crack Singapore LSFO crack Global Fuel Oil Swap’s Term Structure Import & Export Chinese Market Monthly Export amount: Fuel Oil Monthly Import amount: Fuel Oil 燃料油,不含生物柴油:进口数量合计:中国(月) 3000000燃料油,不含生物柴油:出口数量合计:中国→全球(月) Weekly Global Import and Export amount: HSFO Weekly Global Import and Export amount: LSFO Futures’ data andChina-Overseas Spread Overview ◆Review:Recently,thepricedifferencebetweendomesticandforeignspotpriceshasgraduallycontinuedtodecline,whilethepricedifferencebetweenfuturespricesandforeignspotpriceshasremainedrelativelystable. ◆LogicandOutlook:Thecurrentgeopoliticalconflictistemporarilystable,andthespotpricesofdomesticandforeignmarketshavestartedtodeclineasgoodsgraduallyarriveattheport.Theoverallpricedifferencebetweendomesticandforeignspot prices is stable.The cancellation of some warehouse receipts in the LU market has made futures pricesrelativelyresistanttodecline,andthepricedifferencehasnarrowed. Spread—Domestic and Overseas Spot Market Spread—Overseas Spot market and Chinese FuturesFUM-380cst MOPSFUM01-380cst MOPSFU主力-新加坡内外价差FU连一-新加坡内外价差 Trading volume and Open Interest volume of FU/LU FUM–Open Interest FUM–Trading Volume Trading volume and Open Interest volume of FU/LUFUM01–Open InterestFUM01–Trading Volume燃油连一持仓量燃油连一成交量 Trading volume and Open Interest volume of FU/LU Warehouse Warrant Volume in Exchange ThecompanyhasthequalificationoffuturestradingconsultingbusinessapprovedbytheCSRC. TheviewsandinformationinthiscontentareonlyforthereferenceofprofessionalinvestorsofGTJAFutures.Itisdifficulttosetaccesspermissionsforthiscontent.Ifitcausesinconveniencetoyou,pleaseunderstand.IfyouarenotaprofessionalinvestorinGTJAFutures,pleasedonotread,subscribeorreceiveanyrelevantinformation.Thiscontentdoesnotconstitutetherecommendationof specificbusinessesorproducts,norshoulditbeconsideredastheinvestmentrecommendationofcorrespondingfinancialderivatives.Pleasemakeyourowninvestmentdecisionsandbeartheinvestmentrisksaccordingtoyourownrisktolerance.Youshouldnotrelyonthiscontentforspecificoperations. AnalystCertification TheauthorhasthefuturesinvestmentconsultingpracticequalificationorequivalentprofessionalcompetencegrantedbytheChinaFuturesIndustryAssociation,andensuresthatthedatausedinthereportarefromcompliancechannels.Theanalysislogicisbasedontheauthor'sprofessionalunderstanding.Thisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthor'sresearchviews,andstrivestobeindependent,objectiveandfair.Theconclusionisnotinspiredoraffectedbyanythirdparty.Itisherebydeclared. Disclaimers Theinformationinthisreportcomesfromthepublishedinformation,andthecompanymakesnoguaranteefortheaccuracy,completenessorreliabilityofsuchinformation.Theinformation,opinionsandspeculationcontainedinthisreportonlyreflectthejudgmentofthecompanyonthedateofissuingthisreport.Thepriceofthefuturessubjectmatterreferredtointhisreportcanriseorfall,andthepastperformanceshouldnotbeusedasthebasisforfutureperformance.Indifferentperiods,theCompanymayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformation,opinionsandassumptionscontainedinthisreport.TheCompanymakesnowarrantsthattheinformationinthisreportbekeptuptodate.Atthesametime,theCompanycanmodifytheinform