比亚迪：第一季度表现疲软，但好于预期：我们所需的清理事件

BYD: Q1 soft, but better than feared — The clearing event weneeded. Q1 earnings was soft, but was well expected given the volume decline.BYD reportedQ1 revenue of RMB 150.2bn (-11.8% yoy, -36.8% qoq). EV & battery revenue fell -12.5% and-35.6% qoq, on the back of volume decline of -30.0% yoy and -47.8% qoq. ASP improved onbetter product mix from overseas and premium brand sales, and provided some offset to weakdelivery volumes. Overseas mix increased to 46.6% (vs. 20.9% in Q1 25 and 26.2% in Q4 25),and premium brands (Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, and Yangwang) rose to 12.4% (vs. 5.3% in Q125 and 12.3% in Q4 25). Net income was RMB 4.0bn (-57.5% yoy, -57.9% qoq), implying a2.7% net margin (vs. 5.5% in Q1 25 and 4.0% in Q4 25). Excluding BYDE, EV & battery netprofit declined -54.8% yoy and -56.7% qoq. Better than feared.Net profit per car was RMB 5.7k, above expectations of c.RMB 4k, thoughlower than RMB 8.8k in Q1 25 and RMB 6.8k in Q4 25. Overall gross margin was 18.8% (vs.20.1% in Q1 25 and 17.4% in Q4 25). We estimate EV & battery gross margin reached 22.5%(vs. 23.9% in Q1 25 and 21.6% in Q4 25) due to stronger mix. Also, R&D expenses were lowerat RMB 11.3bn (vs. RMB 14.2bn in both Q1 25 and Q4 25). It is unclear whether higher R&Dcapitalization in the quarter, which is not disclosed, supported the bottom line. Potential clearing event.This earnings release could mark a clearing event for the stock.Sentiment has improved as BYD’s new models with flash-charging capability have generatedstrong order momentum. The Song Ultra, priced from RMB 152k, secured 61,240 orders inits first month, while the Da Tang, with a pre-sale price from RMB 250k, attracted 30,000orders within 24 hours—impressive for this price segment for BYD. BYD’s China EV marketshare dipped to 19% in January-February before rebounding to 23% in March. We expectmarket share to improve into Q2 as deliveries of new models ramp up. BYD also continues tomake progress in overseas expansion and external battery sales. Investment Implications DETAILS EXHIBIT 3:PV sales volume was 689k units in Q1 2026,-30.1% yoy and -48.1% qoq EXHIBIT 2:BYD achieved revenue of RMB 150bn in Q12026, -11.8% yoy and -36.8% qoq EXHIBIT 5:Net profit per car (ex-BYDE) was RMB 5.7k (vs.RMB 8.8k in Q1 25 and RMB 6.8k in Q4 25), above streetexpectations of c. RMB 4k EXHIBIT 6:Premium brands contributed to 12.4% of salesvolume in Q1 26, vs. 5.3% in Q1 25 and 12.3% in Q4 25 EXHIBIT 7:Overseas market represented 46.6% of totalsales volume in Q1 26, vs. 20.9% in Q1 25 and 26.2% inQ4 25 EXHIBIT 9:R&D expenses reached RMB 11.3bn for Q1 26,implying 7.6% of revenue, vs. 8.3% in Q1 25 and 6.0% inQ4 25 Source: Company reports and Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 11:BYD recorded RMB 4.7bn operating profit inQ1 26, or 3.1% operating margin, vs. 6.5% in Q1 25 and4.7% in Q4 25 EXHIBIT 10:Administrative expenses increased to RMB5.1bn, or 3.4% of revenue in Q1 26, vs. 2.9% in Q1 25 and2.1% in Q4 25 EXHIBIT 12:Net profit reached RMB 4.0bn in Q1 26, or2.7% net margin, vs. 5.5% in Q1 25 and 4.0% in Q4 25 EXHIBIT 13:BYD’s domestic EV market share dropped to 19% in Jan and Feb and rebounded to 23% in March 2026;we expect BYD’s market share to stabilize from Q2 onwards with the gradual ramp up of deliveries of the newmodels equipped with the lastest flash charging technology EXHIBIT 15:In Q1 2026, BYD’s total battery shipments reached 60 GWh, marking a 14% yoy increase; For Janand Feb 2026, we estimate that external battery shipment - to external OEMs and for ESS projects - wasapproximately c.36% of the total shipment and saw over 62% growth EXHIBIT 16:BYD: Summary of estimates APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY BYD Co Ltd We value BYD based on SOTP valuation. For the EV business, we analysed its valuation with DCF, P/E, and EV/sales approaches.For the battery business, we valued it with DCF and P/E. For handset component and assembly business