星散货航运公司（SBLK）：第一季度表现好于预期；SBLK继续以远低于资产净值的价格回购股票

2024E2025E2026E2027E2.701.802.762.926.1x9.1x5.9x5.6x524.6484.8578.5579.85.2x5.6x4.7x4.7x Omar Nokta * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405 | onokta@jefferies.comJaeyoung McGarry * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8358 | jmcgarry@jefferies.comEmily Harkins * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8584 | eharkins@jefferies.com The Long View: Star BulkInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferStar Bulk is the largest US-listed dry bulk player in terms of market cap,enterprise value, and number of ships. It operates a diverse fleet of vesselswith meaningful exposure across all the large and mid-size segments. Thecompany operates primarily on the spot market and is enjoying the benefitsof having invested previously in scrubbers aboard nearly all of its ships.Base Case,$19, +16%•Dry bulk charter rates average similarly to 2024averages•Prevailing dry bulk ship values ease by 10-15%from current levels•Shares trade at a 20-30% discount to NAV,equal to $19Sustainability MattersTopMaterial Issue(s):1)Energy Management:Star Bulk has established and implements anEnvironmental Management System in accordance with ISO 14001. The company’s Ship EnergyEfficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) is regularly reviewed by management and the plan applies to allvessels, providing standard procedures and practices for best management under the various operationalmodels of each vessel.Company target(s): 1)Inspect every vessel 4x a year, two inspections by a technical superintendent andtwo by a marine safety and quality superintendent2)Overall compliance with Carbon Intensity Indicatorratings, Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index ratings and IMO net emissions reduction targets by 2030.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Has installing scrubbers on the majority of your fleet allowed you to surpass the IMO2020 limitations on sulfur emissions?2)How do you expect your average CII rating to fare in relation toIMO requirements?3)What earnings environment is needed to drive alternative fuel investment in thesub-Cape segments on a larger scale?Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$25, +52%•Dry bulk charter rates jump to highly profitablelevels•Term charter rates and durations extendbeyond typical norms•Prevailing ship values remain unchanged•Company trades in line with forward NAV of $25 Downside Scenario,$12, -27%•Dry bulk charter rates drop below breakeven forextended period•Limited liquidity to secure term charters•Dry bulk ship values decline 20-30%•Company trades at 30-35% discount to revisedNAV, leading to $12 valuationCatalysts•2Q25 earnings•Sizable dividend potential based on results•Acquisition of vessels 2 Exhibit 1 - Star Bulk Income Statement.REVENUES:Net revenuesOPERATING EXPENSES:Ship operating costCharter hireDrydockingsDepreciationGeneral and administrativeOtherTotal operating expensesOPERATING INCOMEOTHER INCOME (EXPENSE):Interest incomeInterest expenseOtherNet other expenseNet IncomeBasic earnings per common share:Diluted earnings per common share:Diluted EPS from continuous operations:Weighted average shares outstanding-basicWeighted average shares outstanding-dilutedEBITDASource: Company filings, Jefferies LLCExhibit 2 - Star Bulk Balance Sheet.Cash and cash equivalentsS/T Restricted cashTotal current assetsVessel depositsVessels, netL/T Restricted cashTotal AssetsCurrent portion of long term debtCurrent portion of capital leasesTotal current liabilitiesLong term debtLong term capital leasesMinority interestStockholders' equityTotal Liabilities and Stockholders' EquitySource: Company filings, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - Star Bulk Cash Flows.Cash flows from operating activitiesNet Income (loss)DepreciationChanges in working capitalOtherNet cash flows from operating activitiesCash flows from investing activitiesCapital expendituresOtherNet cash flows from investing activitiesCash flows from financing activitiesDebt issued / paidShares issued / paidDividends paidOtherNet cash flows from financing activitiesNet increase in cashCash at beginning of periodCash at end of periodCash EarningsOperating Cash FlowCash Earnings / ShareOperating Cash Flow / ShareDividends / ShareSource: Company filings, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 4 - Star Bulk Fleet & Estimated Value.NewcastlemaxDebbie HGargantuaGoliathKatie KMaharajStar AriadneStar AyeshaStar EleniStar KarlieStar LaetitiaStar LeoStar LibraStar MagnanimusStar MarisaStar Gina 2GRStar SiennaStar VirgoCapesizeKymopoliaLeviathanPeloreusStar AngieStar BorneoStar BuenoStar ClaudineStar EvaStar JanniStar LyraStar MarianneStar MarilenaStar MarthaStar OpheliaStar PaulineSt