Scenarios and Strategies Credits About CIGI Paul SamsonS. Yash KalashDianna EnglishGrace Wright The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) isan independent, non-partisan think tank whose peer-reviewedresearch and trusted analysis influence policy makers to innovate.Our global network of multidisciplinary researchers and strategicpartnerships provide policy solutions for the digital era with one President, CIGISenior FellowDirector, Programs À propos du CIGI Le Centre pour l’innovation dans la gouvernance internationale(CIGI) est un groupe de réflexion indépendant et non partisandont les recherches évaluées par des pairs et les analysesfiables incitent les décideurs à innover. Grâce à son réseaumondial de chercheurs pluridisciplinaires et de partenariatsstratégiques, le CIGI offre des solutions politiques adaptées àl’ère numérique dans le seul but d’améliorer la vie des gens dumonde entier. Le CIGI, dont le siège se trouve à Waterloo, au Copyright © 2026 by the Centre for International Governance Innovation The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Centre for International Governance Innovation For publications enquiries, please contact publications@cigionline.org. The text of this work is licensed under CC BY 4.0. To view a copy of this licence,visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. For reuse or distribution, please include this copyright notice. This work maycontain content (including but not limited to graphics, charts and photographs)used or reproduced under licence or with permission from third parties. Centre for International Governance Innovation and CIGI are registered 67 Erb Street WestWaterloo, ON, Canada N2L 6C2 Table of Contents ivAbout the AuthorivAcronyms and Abbreviations1Executive Summary4Introduction: A Fluid and Fragmented Geopolitical Landscape9The IP Rules-Based Order and Its Economic Impacts About the Author Acronyms and Abbreviations Jeremy de Beeris a CIGI senior fellow, a fullprofessor in the Faculty of Law at the Universityof Ottawa and a faculty member at the Centrefor Law, Technology and Society. He holds theTier 1 Canada Research Chair in Innovation and Jeremy is also a senior research associateat the University of Cape Town and a visitingprofessor at the University of Johannesburg. Hisinterdisciplinary scholarship spans law, politicalscience, international relations, public policy and A practising lawyer and expert adviser, Jeremyhas argued numerous cases before the SupremeCourt of Canada, testified to parliamentarycommittees, and guided Canadian departmentsand agencies on technology, trade and innovationpolicy. He is recognized worldwide for his law IPintellectual property ISEDInnovation, Science and EconomicDevelopment Canada Jeremy is the co-founder and co-lead of anaward-winning research partnership thatconnects scholars across Canada and multipleAfrican countries to support high-impactinterdisciplinary and international research, theOpen African Innovation Research (Open AIR) Jeremy holds a B.A. and an LL.B. from theUniversity of Saskatchewan and a B.C.L. fromthe University of Oxford. He has authored andedited multiple books, includingInnovation and Executive Summary This special report explores how intellectual property (IP) is implicated inthe dynamics of trade tensions, even a trade war, and how trade conflict,in turn, reshapes the policy and institutional landscape for IP. The analysisis organized around three scenarios: rebalancing, renegotiation and The special report begins by grounding the analysis in historical and newbaseline economic data. Canada’s IP trade deficit is often mentioned butseldom documented statistically. This report begins to build a strongerevidence base for IP-related trade policy making by quantifying economicimpacts using balance-of-payments data. While such data providesonly a partial picture of challenges and opportunities, it is directionallyindicative, provokes critical questions and reveals the kind of informationpolicy makers need more of. The best available data shows that in 2024,Canada ran an IP services deficit of $16.8 billion.1Since the signing of theAgreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS),2 A first scenario covered in this special report involves IP-relatedrebalancing. IP becomes implicated in a trade war when it is treated as a site of countermeasures. Canadian law contains tools that could bemobilized in this context, including compulsory licensing under thePatent Act and copyright flexibilities, for example. There is also a seldomdiscussed but potent power to suspend foreign IP rights to protectCanada’s interests under trade agreements: subsection 53(2) of the CustomsTariff.3At the multilateral level, World Trade Organization (WTO) rulespermit the suspension of TRIPS obligations as a form of cross-retaliation, A second scenario relates to renegotiation of IP commitments to