2026年3月全球市场展望：聚焦增长与盈利

March 2026 Global Market Outlook Refocusing on growth Improving growth and earnings offerroom for optimism in early 2026.Ourpreference forequitiesand gold,supported by earnings growth and Add to US and Asia ex-Japan equities.Recentcorporateearningsprovidefundamental support for US markets,notwithstanding the AI bubble debate. AI–stillbubbling withopportunities? Contents Strategy Investment strategy:Refocusing on growth and earnings03Foundation asset allocation models Macro overview–at a glance Our macroeconomic outlook and key questions Asset classes BondsEquity Additional perspectives 15 Performance review 05 Foundation:Asset allocation summaryFoundation+:Asset allocation summaryMarket performance summaryOur key forecasts and calendar eventsSC Wealth SelectExplanatory notes 1Investment strategy and key themes Raymond ChengChief Investment Officer, North Asia Steve BriceGlobal Chief Investment Officer Manpreet GillChief Investment Officer, AMEE Refocusing on growth and earnings 12m Foundation Overweights: Improving growth and earnings offer room for optimism in early 2026. Ourpreference forequitiesand gold, supported by earnings growth and diversification Global equities, goldUS, Asia ex-Japan equitiesEmerging Market (EM) USD, Add to US and Asia ex-Japan(AxJ)equities.Recentcorporateearningsprovidefundamental supporttoUS markets, notwithstanding the AI bubble debate. Asian Opportunistic ideas–Equities: Stay Overweight gold.Looking through recent volatility paints a picture of still-strong central bank demand and a sustained price uptrend. The recent pause is US technology, pharma, utilities,aerospace and defence*India large and mid-cap,China non-financial high- So farperformingas expected, butmonitordata The early months of 2026have, thus far,beenevolving largely along the lines weoutlined in our 2026 Outlook–‘Blowing Bubbles?’. Equities have performed well, withAsian equities picking up the slack in US market returns. Gold has trended strongly Sector Overweights: From a policy perspective, we expect a rising focus on US macroeconomic data in thecoming month(s). On the positive side, economic activity data is showing a smartrebound, most visibly so in the new orderspurchasingmanagers’index (PMI)surveys.However, the job marketremains soft,despite a nascent recovery. We continue to US:Technology, healthcare,utilitiesEurope:Healthcare, industrials, The uptick ineconomicactivity data is not confined to the US alone, with positive signsvisible in most major regions. Japan’s election outcome points to more stimulativefiscal policysettings. In Asia, policy in India continues to be supportive for growth and Opportunistic ideas–Bonds: US Treasury Inflation-ProtectedSecurities, short-duration HY,AAA-rated CLOsAsia Investment Grade (IG) Geopolitics means that higher oil prices–and thus higher inflation expectations–area short-termrisk. While this can risk a delay in the next Fed cut, we do not see asignificant risk to our base case scenario assuming no sustained oil supply disruption. Fig. 2Gold continues to rise asa share of centralbank reserves, mainly at the expense of the USD Share of global central bank FX reserves Solid earnings remain the foundation Can gold keep going? Akey theme in our 2026 Outlook was whether the US AI rallyis supported by fundamentals or is a bubble. We viewthetechnology sector’s strong performance as supported by Our positive view on gold is panning out as expected, albeit inanunexpectedly spectacular fashion and with much higher- Our core view that gold prices are supported by continuedEmergingMarket(EM)central bank demand remainsunchanged, with recent data showing continued demand forthe metal. Gold also continues to rise as a share of globalcentral bank reserves, though,at the moment,there is little to The latestearnings seasonis pointing to robustUS earningsgrowth this year, with consensus expectations for 14.6%growth, led by the technology sector with32.3%growth. Whilevaluations are no doubt at levels that need to be watched Having said that, we do believe there is value in avoidingexcessive concentration in AI and technology against thebackdrop of this bubble debate. We remain Overweight USequities, with a preference for the US technology sector. Inthis context, recent volatility was likely a result of animalspirits pushing the price well above trend until excessivepositioning led to a correction back to trend. Despite these Regionally, we remain Overweight AxJ.AxJhas outperformedthe US since we published our 2026 Outlook, with USDweakness helping unlock outperformance as expected.This Bonds are all about the yield Against the relative excitement in equities and commodities,bonds have been relativelylacklustrein the early months ofthe year. While there has been considerable debate over thedirection of Fed policy undernew Fed Chair nomineeWarsh,US bond yields have been rangebound, offering attractiveopportunities to earn a yield,but li