2026年3月全球贸易展望与统计

March 2026 About the WTO The World Trade Organization is the international body dealingwith the global rules of trade between WTO members. Its mainfunction is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably andfreely as possible, with a level playing field for all its members. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared under the WTO Secretariat’s own responsibility.It does not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of WTO members and iswithout prejudice to their rights and obligations under the WTO agreements. Theopinions expressed and arguments employed herein are not intended to provide anyauthoritative or legal interpretation of the provisions of the WTO agreements andshall in no way be read or understood to have any legal implications whatsoever.The terms and illustrations used in this publication do not constitute or imply anexpression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status or boundariesof any territory Acknowledgements This report was prepared under the leadership of Robert Staiger, WTO ChiefEconomist and Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. Lead contributors were Coleman Nee, Barbara D’Andrea Adrian, KseniaKoloskova and Marc Auboin. The analytical chapter was prepared by Tomasz Gonciarz and Thomas Verbeet. Additional contributions through statistical production, modelling or draftingwere provided by Eddy Bekkers, Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Shradha Bhatia,Lori Chang, Fabio Della Coletta, Florian Eberth, Kathryn Lundquist, YannMarcus, Théo Mbise, Cédric Pene, Donal Smith, Corey To and Dayong Yu. Helen Swain, Anthony Martin and Jean-marie McAdams of the Informationand External Relations Division provided valuable support in the editing andproduction of the report. Contents 1.Executive summary2 2.Outlook for world trade in 2026 and 2027 Trade developments in 2025 and forecasts for 2026 and 20274Macroeconomic drivers8 3.Trade forecast in depth10 Merchandise trade10Commercial services13Trade-related indicators14 16 Merchandise trade16Commercial services25 5.Analytical chapter: The share of world tradeon most-favoured-nation (MFN) terms30 6.Appendix tables35 Appendix Table 1:Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 202535 Appendix Table 2:Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise tradeexcluding intra-EU trade, 202536 Appendix Table 3:Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 202537 Appendix Table 4:Leading exporters and importers of commercial servicesexcluding intra-EU trade, 202538 Appendix Table 5:Leading exporters and importers of digitally delivered services, 202539 7.Bibliography40 Executive summary •World trade is set to slow in 2026 following a stronger than expectedrise last year. In our baseline scenario, merchandise trade volume growthwould drop from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026 before picking up to 2.6%in 2027. The same scenario for services trade volume would see growtheasing from 5.3% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, then rising to 5.1% in 2027. •In 2025, world goods and services trade grew around 4.7%, exceedingworld GDP growth of 2.9%. In 2026, goods and services trade and GDPshould grow at around the same rate (2.7% for trade, 2.8% for GDP). •The current US dollar value of world merchandise trade as measuredby exports was US$ 26.26 trillion in 2025, up 7% compared to 2024.Services trade reached US$ 9.56 trillion last year, up 8% over theprevious year. Goods and services trade, on a balance-of-payments basis,came to US$ 34.65 trillion in 2025, up 7% year-on-year. •If sustained, the high oil prices related to the recent Middle East conflict could shave0.5 percentage points off the 1.9% merchandise trade growth in 2026. Conversely,growth could also be boosted by 0.5 percentage points if trade in AI-related goodsremains as strong as in 2025.Which factor will predominate over the course of the yearremains to be seen. •The impact of the Middle East conflict on services trade could be as strong as onmerchandise, subtracting 0.7 percentage points from growth in 2026, due to significantdownside risks to international transport and travel. A prolonged conflict could keeptransport and fuel costs structurally elevated, disrupt key shipping and air routes,and weigh on regional tourism and global travel demand. •The volume of world merchandise trade grew 4.6% in 2025, well above our Octoberforecast of 2.4%, as surging demand for AI-related goods − related to the globalinvestment boom in the sector − offset the negative impacts of higher tariffs andincreased trade policy uncertainty. •The 2026 forecast for merchandise trade growth, while lower than the 2025 result, isstill above the previous forecast of 0.5%. The revision was due to upgraded GDP growthprojections, the expectation of continued strong growth in AI-related trade, and a smallerthan anticipated impact of tariffs. Recent trade policy changes in 2026 mostly involvedsubstitution of legal instruments rather than a substantive chan