全球贸易展望与统计 - 更新：2025年10月

Update: October 2025 About the WTO The World Trade Organization is the international body dealingwith the global rules of trade between WTO members. Its mainfunction is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably andfreely as possible, with a level playing field for all its members. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared under the WTO Secretariat’s own responsibility.It does not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of WTO members and iswithout prejudice to their rights and obligations under the WTO agreements. Theopinions expressed and arguments employed herein are not intended to provide anyauthoritative or legal interpretation of the provisions of the WTO agreements andshall in no way be read or understood to have any legal implications whatsoever. The terms and illustrations used in this publication do not constitute or imply anexpression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status or boundariesof any territory. Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Economic Research and Statistics DivisionunderthesupervisionofDeputyDirector-GeneralJohannaHill.Leadcontributorswere Coleman Nee, Barbara D’Andrea Adrian, Marc Auboin and Eddy Bekkers.Additional contributions through statistical production, modelling or draftingwereprovidedbyShradhaBhatia,LoriChang,FabioDellaColetta,FlorianEberth,Lee Humphreys, Hryhorii Kalachyhin, Ksenia Koloskova, Yann Marcus, TheoMbise, Donal Smith, Ying Yan and Toby Bushley. The Information and External Relations Division provided valuable support onthe production of the report. Contents Executive summary2 Outlook for world trade in 2025 and 2026 Merchandise trade4Commercial services5Macroeconomic conditions5 Trade forecast in depth8 Merchandise trade8Commercial services9Trade-related indicators10 Trade in value terms12 Merchandise trade12AI-related goods - the engine of trade growth in 202514Commercial services17 Comparison of October edition of GTOS with April edition21 Analytical chapter: Trade imbalances and the limits22of trade policy Appendix tables28 Appendix Table 1: Leading exporters and importers in world merchandisetrade, 202428 Appendix Table 2: Leading exporters and importers in world merchandisetrade excluding intra-EU trade, 2024 Appendix Table 3: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services,202430 Appendix Table 4: Leading exporters and importers of commercial servicesexcluding intra-EU trade, 2024 31 Appendix Table 5: Leading exporters and importers of digitally deliveredservices, 2024 32 Bibliography 33 Executive summary •WTO economists’ forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025has risen to 2.4% (up from the estimate of 0.9% in the interim outlook in August)while the outlook for 2026 has deteriorated to 0.5% (down from the Augustestimate of 1.8%). •The forecast for services trade has also been updated, with commercial servicesexport volume now expected to grow 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, up slightlyfrom the previous estimates last April. •The volume of world merchandise trade was up 4.9% year-on-year in the firsthalf of 2025, growing at a faster rate than expected. Several factors contributedto this robust trade expansion, including frontloading of imports in NorthAmerica in anticipation of higher tariffs, favourable macroeconomic conditions(e.g. disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, strong growth in emerging markets)and a surge in demand for AI-related goods. •It is difficult to determine how much of the boost to trade in the first half of theyear was due to macroeconomic “push” factors but the April edition of GlobalTrade Outlook and Statistics noted that, if it were not for higher tariffs and risingpolicy uncertainty, macroeconomic conditions were expected to be supportiveof trade growth in 2025. •Prospects for the second half of 2025 and 2026 are less optimistic.With highertariffs now in place and trade policy still highly uncertain, frontloading ofpurchases is expected to unwind as accumulated inventories are drawn downand as GDP growth slows.Possible signs of weakness in trade and manufacturingoutput have been observed in developed economies,including reduced businessand consumer confidence and slower growth in employment and incomes. •As a result, the new forecast indicates stronger trade growth in 2025 and weakertrade growth in 2026. For 2025 and 2026 combined the forecast is slightlystronger in the current forecast (+2.9%) than in the previous one (+2.3%). •The US$ value of world merchandise trade was up 6% year-on-year in the firsthalf of 2025. In contrast to goods, year-on-year growth in commercial servicestrade slowed to 5% in the first quarter of this year from 10% in the final quarterof last year but appears to have bounced back to 9% in the second quarterbased on preliminary data. •The analytical section on the role of trade policy in influencing trade imbalancesexamines how trade balances respond to policy interventions, such as tariffsand