2026年全球市场展望：前瞻聚焦

Contents 8Equity outlook 12Fixed Income outlook Forward with focus Although equity markets have enjoyed a healthy upliftin 2025, strong earnings growth in key sectors provideshope that additional gains can be realized. The continuedpromise of artificial intelligence (AI) and supportive fiscalpolicies in major economies underpin good prospectsin the coming year. We stay constructive on the assetclass and maintain a slight preference for US stocks,while recognizing that valuations are rich and marketconcentration remains a concern—underlining theimportance of being selective in exposures. Within fixed income, we have a preference for governmentbonds over credit across most advanced economies giventight spreads, the policy backdrop, and ongoing concernsthat additional shocks may surface. As we move into 2026 afteranother year of significantdevelopments and surprises,we do so with a sense ofcautious optimism. Beyond the main asset classes, a range of alternativeinvestment types can help diversify portfolios and sourceadditional return avenues. As we have seen, gold and othercommodities, income-generating assets, real assets, andprivate markets have all benefited from investors adoptinga broader approach. And while there may be concernsthat some of these assets have become more fully valued,there is room for broader adoption, risk managementimpulses, and improved market access to further supportadvances in 2026. Because global equity portfolios already tend to have asignificant weighting in US shares, non-US investors havethe additional task of assessing the impact of currencytranslation. Fiscal and policy developments create a riskthat USD weakness may offset gains from US equityholdings for these investors—selective hedging of dollarexposure is worthy of consideration to help preserveportfolio returns. The resilience of markets has been tested, but the strengthof the global economy has shone through. Although thenarrative around tariffs continues to unfold and the shockof “Liberation Day” is behind us, the direction of travelon negotiations is clear and should contain more upsidethan downside surprises. With an inflation trajectorytrending lower, US policy rates likely to fall as the Fedtakes stock of a softening labor market, and policy leversturning stimulative, we have a supportive environment forrisk assets. We explore these themes and more in our latestGlobal Market Outlook. Lori Heinel, CFAGlobal Chief Investment OfficerState Street Investment Management Lori Heinel, CFA MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOKGrowth amid uncertainty Our outlook for the global economy in 2026reflects the recent evolution of policy decisionsand their delayed effects. Notwithstanding the headlines and uncertainty surroundingthe initial tariffs announcement earlier in 2025, our basecase that such levies would neither cause a recession norhave an outsized impact on inflation has largely playedout. The US, and global, economies are set to enjoycontinued growth in the coming year, albeit growth that isaccompanied by a continuing sense of anxiety. investments in multilingual AI and hardware-softwareco-evolution. These initiatives are expected to driveearnings growth and reinforce Japan’s ambition to become“the world’s most AI-friendly country for developmentand utilization.1” Together, these regional policy shiftssuggest a more supportive macro backdrop for globalgrowth in 2026, even as trade uncertainty and geopoliticaltensions persist. In the US, a variety of policy levers will be stimulative, atleast in the short term: Fiscal impulse to support growth Outside the US, policy settings are also shifting towardsmoderately stimulative measures that could help defraythe effects of trade uncertainty. In Europe, Germany’scombined defense-infrastructure program—anchoredby its €500 billion fiscal package—is expected to beginlifting macroeconomic indicators in early 2026, particularlythrough increased public investment and industrial activity.This fiscal impulse aligns with broader European efforts tomodernize defense capabilities and digital infrastructure,potentially spilling over into earnings growth in sectorssuch as Industrials and Utilities. However, the scale ofAI investment in Europe still lags behind the US, andovercoming regulatory hurdles remains key to unlockingfurther upside. •Monetary policy will continue on its easing path,complemented by fiscal stimulus stemming from theOne Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the many taxincentives and refunds triggered in January 2026 With most of the easing cycle globally behind us, andas central banks move closer to assumed neutral rates,we are now more cautious about the pace of futurerate reductions, and expect more divergence betweencentral banks: •Furthermore, the deregulation agenda is now beingprioritized, with a major focus on the financial andenergy industries; this should help promote creditcreation and sustain low energy prices The year of delayed policy impact 2026 sh