固定收益市场每日更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, the new CITNAT 29-31s and HIGHWY 31s were unchangedto 1bp wider from ROs. We saw better buying on JP financial nameslikeMIZUHO and KR corporate POHANG/SKBTAM, and the bonds traded 1-2bps tighter. SHUION 26-29 were 0.2pt lower to 0.1pt higher. NWDEVL Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852)3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk HONGQI:UOP for fund raising is the key for IG status. HONGQI 0 05/03/27(CB) was 0.8pt higher this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk BSFR:1Q26 earnings on track despite NIM compression;watch forgeopolitical risks. BSFRs were unchanged this morning. See below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Yesterday,HONGQI 28s were 0.1pt lower.China Hongqiao raisedRMB10.2bn(cUSD1.5bn)from a zero-coupon CB last evening.Seecomments below. CWAHK 26-30 were unchanged to 0.1pt higher. ChinaWater Affairs will tap CWAHK 30 to fund concurrent tender offer for CWAHK26. See our commentsyesterday. FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.1pts. InChinese properties, VNKRLE 27’ and 29’ lost 0.2-0.7pt. Fitch downgradedVanke’s IDRs to RD from CC on completion of a distressed debt exchange,and simultaneously upgraded to CC to reflect post-restructuring profile.FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26-29/LNGFOR 27-32 were 0.3pt lower to 0.4pt higher.In Chinese IG space, we saw PBs and RMs buying MEITUA 30s/AACTEC31sand AMs buying FRESHKs/ZHOSHK 28,versus better selling inLENOVO 30s. The space closed largely unchanged in spreads. Taiwaneselifers were unchanged to 2bps tighter, led by better buying on the newCATLIF 41. In JP space, 5yr bank FRNs and 4-5yr SUMIBK/MIZUHO/NOMURA fixed-rate tranchestightened 1-2bps. In KR space, bellybonds ofHYUELE/LGENSO/POHANG/HYNMTR traded 2-5bps tighter,driven bybetter buying and short-covering. Their front-end counterparts closed 1-3bps Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.12%), Dow (-0.13%) and Nasdaq (+0.20%) were mixed on Monday.UST yield was higher onMonday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.78%/3.94%/4.35%/4.94%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 HONGQI:UOP from large fund raising exercises is the key for potential IG status Last evening, China Hongqiao (HONGQI) raised zero-coupon, 363-day CB of RMB10.2bn.The CB will bedenominated in RMB, CNH-linked and settled in USD (weare still puzzling why not issuing Dim Sum).Theconversion price of the CB is HKD43.9 per share, representing an initial conversion premium of 25.3% over thelast close. The use of proceeds are for procurement and stockpiling of bauxite as raw materialsfor production, The company has good access to capital markets.In addition to the CB raised last evening and shareplacement of USD1.5bn in Nov’25, HONGQI raised a total of RMB12.3bn and RMB2bn in onshore bondmarkets in 2025 and YTD at weighted average coupon rates of 2.6%and 2.6%, respectively.It also raised We are impressed with HONGQI’s resilience operating performance.Hongqiao Holdings (002379 CH), themajor subsidiary (88.99% stake) of HONGQI announced solid 1Q26 results driven by higher ASP (Shanghaialuminum price up 17% to RMB24k/t in 1Q26) and lower input (such as bauxite) costs. The tight global supplywill continue to support aluminum price and HONGQI’s operating performance.See the commentsfrom our We are also impressed with HONGQI’s significant net debt reduction (down 33% to RMB20.9bn as of Dec’25since Dec’22) and improvement in liquidity profile (cash/ST debts increased to 1.9x as of Dec’25 from 0.7x asof Dec’22). Its debts/EBITDA, net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/int ratios were 1.8x, 0.5x and 10.4x, respectivelyin FY25.Its total liability/total assets declined to 42.2% as of Dec’25, down from 48.2% as of Dec’22, belowmanagement’s target range of 45-46%. Indeed, we consider that HONGQI has demonstrated an IG profile ona quantitative basis.The key moving part for HONGQI’s potential IG status is its expansion and capex plan.HONGQI guided FY26 capex at RMB15bn on renewable projects (RMB5-6bn), Yunnan relocation (RMB2bn), and consider the current valuations of HONGQIs have priced in a good chance HONGQI will be upgraded to We maintain buy on BSFR 6.375 Perp and BSFR 5.761 09/03/35.We view they offer more appealing risk-return profiles compared with those of its peers. These are the first USD AT1 and T2 issued by Banque SaudiFransi (BSF).We consider the likelihood of its AT1 and T2 to be called on first call date is high given BSF’slarge capital buffer. We take some comfort on BSF’s call record in Nov’25 when it redeemed BSFR Float Perp(local currency AT1) of SAR5bn on the first call date, which was the first AT1 issued by BSF back in 2020. The BSF’s 1Q26 operating income rose by 3% yoy to SAR2.7bn, driven by a 5% yoy increase in net interest incometo SAR2.2bn from 7% growth in average interest earning assets, partly offset by 7bps yoy compression in NIMto3.02%. The lower NIM, in line with BSF’s target of c3%, largely reflected the cumulative 75bps of SaudiCentral Bank (SAMA) rate c