Fischbeck聚焦：当前的风险（星级、医疗保险优势计划）与催化剂（趋势？）

catalysts (trend?) from hereReiterateRating:NEUTRAL/PO:380.00USD/Price:346.01USD Guide looks conservative on s0.50 raise after s0.70 beatUNH reported Q1 EPS of $7.23, which was $0.70 (10.7%) above consensus, and raised 2026 EPS guide by $0.50 to $18.25. The upside was driven by a 190bp MLR beat,partially offset by investments in opex/Al to drive future EPS growth. The quarter wasn't quite as clean as it seems, with favorable development adding s0.44 of the $0.50 raiseand 1x items making it hard to fully analyze Optum subsegment margins. Nevertheless,there were no signs of issues and the guide feels conservative, so we are raising our2026/27/28 estimates,and raising our P0 to$380 (same19x2027multiple onour newests). We remain Neutral as we await further visibility on Stars and 2028 MA rates.Quarter half empty, or half full? Likely half full KeyChanges beat was because consensus lowered estimates heading into the quarter, and the rest waslargely PPD.Withmgmt.indicating they want to see Q2 before getting more bullish,the jury may still be out on the magnitude of 2026 upside. A more bullish read is thatthere is no reason to raise by more than s0.50 this early, and a large incentive compaccrual and DCP boost signals UNH is trying to hold down numbers, while the difficulty inreconciling the MLR and OptumHealth ramps, is because UNH is trying to keep numberslow and that is the only way to get the math to tie. We lean to the latter interpretation,but are looking forafew more datapoints beforebecomingmorepositive.Fischbeck Focus: What could go wrong and right from here +1 646 855 5948kevin.fischbeck@bofa.comJoanna GajukResearch AnalystBofAS +1 646 855 3961joanna.gajuk@bofa.comCraig JonesResearch Analyst While the 2027 Final Rate Notice was a positive for the industry, we still remain Neutralon UNH as we view incremental risk In stars and the 2028 rate notice.For the2028 BofAS+1 646 743 2020craig.jones3@bofa.comJoaquin Arriagada MartinezResearch Analyst rate notice, we highlight 4 tools CMS has available to it for 2028: updating the riskadjustment for more recent data, health risk assessments, linked chart reviews, and anencounter based model. For stars, we view incremental risk of a stars miss due tocutting benefits this year and highlight UNH's MA contract concentration for certainlarge 4.0/4.5 star contracts. However, there is an important potential catalyst that couldget us more constructive:an improvement in2026 trend could at leastpartially offsetthese headwinds as lower trend means that rates do not have to be as high to get totarget margins. If UNH enters 2028 at the high end of target MA margins, it would bemuch easier to deal withany 2028 rate pressure. BofAS+1 646 855 1654joaquin.arriagadamartinez@bofa.comKatie FitzGeraldResearch Analyst BofAS+1 646 556 2930katie.fitzgerald@bofa.com Price BofA Securities does and seeks to do business withissuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 16 to 18. Analyst Certification on page 14. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 14.12961911 iQprofiles"UnitedHealthGroupIncome Statement Data (Dec) Managed Health Care UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is one of the largest Managed Care Organizations (MCOs), serving members both in theUS and internationally. UNH is the most diversified payer,either by product line, geography or customer type. Thecompany's operating segments include United Healthcare,OptumRx, Optumlnsight, and OptumHealth. Our Neutral rating reflects uncertainty around potential multi-year MA turn around and higher medical utilizationleaking into other parts of the business, while the 2026Final Rate Notice provides some relief on margins in themedium term as UNH could have multiple levers at itsdisposal to help mitigate margin headwinds Every quarter we choose a theme to explore in more detail, either in response to recent investor questions or because of an unexpected development in the quarter. This quarterwe look at the reasons why we are not more positive (Stars, MA rates)and what couldmake us move more in that direction (trend deceleration).Unknowns for the stock 2027 Final Rate Notice better than expected of +2.48%, 239bps above the proposal. This is above the high end of the 1-2%improvement vs the proposal that the Market was expecting. Although the rate is stilllikely to be a few percent below trend, it should be easier to deal with than the proposalwould have been. We view the reg as a clear positive, as it gives the sector morebreathing room in returning MA margins back towards target in 2027.Nevertheless,CMS indicated that it continues to evaluate additional potential adjustments to riskcoding in the future, and we expect 2028 will likely be another year of rate below trend. Fi