2025肯尼亚公路交通电气化进程中的供应链挑战与机遇评估报告

Assessing supply chain barriers to andopportunities for advancing road transport Amos Mwangi, Iman Abubaker, Japheth Kipkirui, and Anna Oursler Highlights▪ CONTENTS Kenya’s transport sector is the second-greatest contributor to thecountry’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for 13 percentof total emissions. Over 75 percent of Kenyans can access clean energy,so switching to electric vehicles (EVs) could help Kenya curb air pollu- ▪This working paper analyzes the obstacles that are hampering the transi-tion to cleaner vehicles, identifies opportunities to tackle these problems, Electric mobility investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 ▪It finds that, to increase EV uptake, the Kenyan government will needto bolster policy and regulatory interventions; improve access to EVtechnology, infrastructure, and financing; enhance the economic and Summary of supply chain barriers toelectrification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 What is Kenya’s government doing topromote electrification of transport?. . . . . . . . . . 16 ▪Interventions should be data driven and employ targeted modellingto weigh budgetary costs, estimate business value, and design and ▪Africa is now regarded as the continent where sales of vehicles willsurge the most, so tipping Kenya’s market toward EVs could have an Recommendations: Opportunities forelectrification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Executive summary Context Working Papers contain preliminary research, analysis,findings, and recommendations. They are circulated tostimulate timely discussion and critical feedback, and toinfluence ongoing debate on emerging issues. Vehicle electrification has been identified as among the most impact-ful ways to cut GHG emissions, with a potential to bring down Kenya’stransport sector emissions by 4.5 percent below emissionsunder a Suggested Citation:Mwangi, A., I. Abubaker, J.Kipkirui, and A. Oursler. 2025. “Assessing supplychain barriers to and opportunities for advancing roadtransport electrification in Kenya.”Working Paper.Addis Ababa: WRI Africa. Available online at doi. World Resources Institute’s 2023State of Climate Actionreport points toglobal transport electrification as the only measure on course to achievesectoral targets under the Paris climate agreement(Boehm et al. 2023). and India, are developing policies on EV manufacturing anddeployment to spur growth in EV adoption (IEA 2023). Butgovernments in sub–Saharan African countries have yet tointervene comprehensively to accelerate electrification. Africa’scontribution to the global EV transition has been meager. This lation is likely to continue to choose polluting ICE vehicles(ICEVs), which would aggravate air quality deterioration andcontinue to contribute to climate change. What are the major obstaclesto EV adoption? While the Kenyan government has been proactive inpromoting electrification, there are some policy and regula-tory barriers.These include the absence of a comprehensiveelectric mobility policy, inadequate incentivization of produc- Kenya has recently moved aggressively to support elec-trification.For example, it has lowered the value-added tax(VAT) to zero for lithium-ion batteries, electric bicycles,motorcycles, and buses, and adopted a special subsidizedelectricity tariff for EV charging. However, like even the mostadvanced economies, Kenya can maximize the impact ofefforts to support EV supply chains by continuously evaluat-ing them. While research has been conducted on parts of While EVs are undergoing research and development(R&D),EV technology cannot currently offer the sameperformance and durability as ICE vehicles at an equivalentupfront cost, posing a significant obstacle to electrifica-tion.Batteries that would pack enough energy to cover asimilar distance as ICEVs on a tank of fuel are still expensive.Uncertainty surrounding end-of-life management of EVs isanother hurdle. In addition, infrastructure that would increase About this working paper This paper analyzes Kenya’s EV ecosystem, markets, poli-cies, and regulations.It compares what Kenya is doing withsteps other governments have taken to identify gaps andopportunities to accelerate progress in vehicle electrification. Italso synthesizes insights from EV companies, financiers, gov-ernment stakeholders, and users, and assesses the low-hangingfruit in EV advancement. We acknowledge that rail, marine, Another key obstacle keeping more people from purchasingEVs is their high upfront cost.This stems from, among otherthings, the cost of obtaining loans to manufacture and buythem. Most electric-mobility (e-mobility) companies are start-ups, and typically lack extensive banking history or collateral.For this reason, they are unable to access affordable commer-cial lending from banking or financing institutions and relyon equity investors, venture funds, and grants. Most end usersalso face several limitations to